An undersea volcano, located 470 km off the coast of Oregon and named Axial Seamount, could be gearing up for an eruption in 2025. Scientists regard the advanced forecast of volcanic eruptions, sometimes beyond mere hours’ notice, as an exceptional feat.
The looming underwater titan stands approximately 1,100 meters tall, stretches over 2km in diameter, and sits 1,400m beneath the ocean’s surface. Over the past ten years, a suite of technological marvels has been tirelessly recording the submarine giant’s every shudder and belch, relaying information to the surface via an undersea cable.
Geologist Mark Zumberge from Scripps Institution of Oceanography hailed it as “the most well-instrumented submarine volcano on the planet”. November saw Axial Seamount’s top swell to the same elevation observed prior to its last significant outburst in 2015—an event seen by scientists as strong evidence of underground magma buildup and increasing internal pressure.
Last time such swelling occurred, researchers at Oregon State University were able to accurately predict that year’s eruption, calling it “our best forecasting success”. Now, akin pre-eruption signs, coupled with heightened earthquake activity near the volcano, have led experts to anticipate its next spectacular discharge.
The Axial research team is harnessing the power of artificial intelligence to scrutinise past earthquake recordings from before the 2015 eruption, aiming to pinpoint patterns that could signal an impending blast. “There’s no crystal ball,” admits Valerio Acocella, a volcanologist at Roma Tre University in Rome, reports Daily Star.
He has high hopes for Axial, dubbing it a “very promising volcano” due to its regular eruptions, each providing a chance to refine theories. “We need ideal cases to understand how volcanos work,” he explained.
Despite the inherent unpredictability of volcanoes, Acocella cautions: “There’s always a risk that a Volcano will follow a pattern that we haven’t seen before and do something unexpected.”
Looking ahead to 2025, he believes that while Axial’s eruption won’t revolutionise eruption forecasting, it will enhance our comprehension, benefiting the study of other volcanoes as well.
