Get ready for Thanksgiving Day football: Previewing all three NFL games, including picks and matchup keys

The Week 13 schedule for the 2024 NFL season begins with a great slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know for the holiday’s three matchups.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each contest. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each matchup, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Moody, Walder and Kalyn Kahler — give us final score picks for every game. Plus, we look at the best moments from each team’s Thanksgiving history.

Let’s start with the Bears and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for the 20th time.

Jump to a matchup:
CHI-DET | NYG-DAL | MIA-GB

12:30 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -10 (48.5 O/U)

Bears storyline to watch: Wide receiver DJ Moore went from averaging 9.8 air yards per target in Weeks 1-10 to 1.9 after the Bears made Thomas Brown their offensive coordinator in Week 11. Moore caught all seven of his targets that came behind the line of scrimmage against the Packers and Vikings for 96 yards and a touchdown. He has generated 120 yards after the catch, which is a league high over the past two weeks. Detroit’s defense has allowed 4.3 yards per target on passes behind the line of scrimmage, which is the fourth-lowest average in the league, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Courtney Cronin

Lions storyline to watch: On a short week, can the Lions deliver their first Thanksgiving victory since 2016? Although they’re off to their best start in 90 years, Detroit will try to limit distractions during the annual holiday game, as coach Dan Campbell’s message this week was to rest, recover and focus on the job at hand. The Lions have scored 40-plus points in three straight home games and will try to continue that pace. “We haven’t won on Thanksgiving in a while, and that’s something we want to change,” quarterback Jared Goff said following Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: The Lions will be the seventh team in the past 40 seasons to play on Thanksgiving as the NFL’s highest-scoring offense. Each of the previous six teams went on to win their games.

Bold prediction: Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson will intercept Goff. Johnson is having another great season, with 0.9 yards per coverage snap allowed, well below the 1.2 average for outside corners (per Next Gen Stats). — Walder

Injuries: Bears | Lions

Fantasy X factor: Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit’s offensive line ranks 12th in run block win rate, and the team is third in rushing attempts per game. As David Montgomery deals with a shoulder injury on a short week, expect the Lions to lean even more on Gibbs. The Bears’ defensive front ranks 26th in run stop win rate, so Detroit’s ground game could have a big day. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their past five games, and four of their past five games have gone under the total. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Lions 28, Bears 21
Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Bears 17
Walder’s pick: Lions 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: DET, 76.2% (by an average of 11.0 points)

Thanksgiving Day throwback: This is the second-most-common matchup on Thanksgiving Day after the Packers and Lions’ 22 meetings. Chicago leads the Thanksgiving series 11-8, including three straight wins in 2018, 2019 and 2021. Detroit last won in 2014, when Calvin Johnson recorded 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Caleb Williams improving under OC Thomas Brown … Cairo Santos accepts blame for ‘stink’ with blocks … How the Lions went from perennial underdog to sportsbooks’ worst enemy

4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DAL -4 (37.5 O/U)

Giants storyline to watch: The Giants come in reeling and on the verge of implosion. They’ve dropped six straight, and players called their effort “soft” in Sunday’s 30-7 loss to the Buccaneers following the bye week. New York has been outscored 148-74 during that stretch and relied on Tommy DeVito, previously the third-string quarterback, last week. DeVito was sacked four times and is now a long shot to play Thursday due to a forearm injury. That puts Drew Lock in line for his first start with the Giants. — Jordan Raanan

Cowboys storyline to watch: Can they put together a winning streak? Can they actually win a game at home? The Cowboys last won two straight in Weeks 4 and 5 and have yet to win a game at AT&T Stadium this season. They have trailed by more than 20 points in each of their past six home games, including the playoffs, which is an NFL record. But this is the Giants, who are coming off an embarrassing Week 12 performance. And the Cowboys have won seven straight games against them at AT&T Stadium. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II had nine sacks through Week 7, which was the most in NFL. He has had zero sacks since then, but one more would make him the third Giants player with double-digit sacks through 12 games in the past 15 seasons.

Bold prediction: Malik Nabers will record 90-plus receiving yards. He’s still rocking a 99 open score via ESPN’s receiver scores, the highest possible, which means he’s doing his job to get open — whether or not his quarterback can get him the ball. I think Lock starting is a good thing (relative to DeVito) for Nabers, especially after he complained about not getting a first-half target last week. — Walder

Injuries: Giants | Cowboys

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Fantasy X factor: Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. In regular-season games without quarterback Dak Prescott, Lamb has averaged 12.0 targets and 16.8 fantasy points per game. With Rush under center, he should get plenty of looks, especially because the Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their passes. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Unders are 5-0 when the Giants play teams with losing records this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Cowboys 17, Giants 12
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 26, Giants 19
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 19, Giants 16
FPI prediction: DAL, 52.6% (by an average of 1.2 points)

Thanksgiving Day throwback: In 1993, Cowboys defensive tackle Leon Lett tried to recover a blocked winning field goal attempt. The ball was booted forward by Lett and recovered by the Dolphins at the 2-yard line. Miami connected on its next field goal attempt and won 16-14. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Eli Manning is destined for Hall of Fame, but when? … Is the Cowboys’ wild win a stepping stone to a late playoff push? … Inside the wild Cowboys win against the Commanders

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Universo/Peacock | ESPN BET: GB -3.5 (46.5 O/U)

Dolphins storyline to watch: The Dolphins are winless under coach Mike McDaniel in temperatures under 40 degrees — and temperatures in Green Bay are expected to drop below freezing. McDaniel said his team is well aware of the narrative about its inability to play in cold weather. But Miami is bringing one of the most efficient offenses over the past month into this matchup. No NFL team has scored on a higher percentage of its drives since Week 8 than the Dolphins (56.3%). — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Packers storyline to watch: The Packers might have finally ironed out their red zone issues. They scored touchdowns on all five of their red zone drives (including three scoring runs by Josh Jacobs) in Sunday’s win over the 49ers after ranking 27th in touchdown percentage inside the 20 before the game. Because the Dolphins rank seventh in red zone defense, this Thanksgiving contest might show whether that’s for real or a fluke. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: The Packers forced three or more takeaways for the sixth time this season against the 49ers, which is the most in the NFL. They scored 22 points off turnovers, which is their most in a game since Week 17 of 2022.

Bold prediction: Dolphins edge Chop Robinson will record two or more sacks. The rookie pass rusher has really been coming on strong lately. In Week 12, he led edge rushers in pass rush win rate for the second straight week (42.1%). — Walder

Injuries: Dolphins | Packers

Fantasy X factor: Dolphins running back De’Von Achane. He is crucial in this must-win game for Miami, as it looks to get back into the AFC playoff race. Why not lean on one of its most dangerous playmakers? Achane has scored 20-plus fantasy points in four of his past five games. The Packers’ defense has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to running backs this season, making his dual-threat skill set especially valuable. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Packers are 8-3 outright and ATS in games when it’s 32 degrees or below under coach Matt LaFleur, including the playoffs. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Packers 28, Dolphins 27
Moody’s pick: Packers 34, Dolphins 28
Walder’s pick: Packers 24, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: GB, 66.3% (by an average of 6.5 points)

Thanksgiving Day throwback: This is just the third time the Packers have played at home on Thanksgiving. The other matchups were a 1923 win over the Hammond Pros and a 17-13 loss to the Bears in 2015. Against Chicago, Green Bay was stuffed on fourth-and-goal with 22 seconds left in regulation. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Tyreek Hill’s traffic citations dismissed after officers’ no-show … McDaniel hints at ‘tantrum’ to avoid Calais Campbell trade … Jacobs, rushing game give Packers something to rely on