Milton makes landfall as Category 3 hurricane near Siesta Key, Florida

October 9, 7:30 p.m.

Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida Wednesday night as a Category 3 storm with 120 mile per hour winds.

The Tampa Bay area, home to more than 3.3 million people, faced the possibility of widespread destruction after avoiding direct hits from major hurricanes for more than a century.

The storm is expected to subsequently move off the east coast of Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday afternoon.

October 9, 4 p.m.

Hurricane Milton is zeroing in on a landfall between the southern edge of Tampa Bay and Sarasota, Florida this evening. Winds are now at a category 3 level of 120 mph, and the the storm has grown in size with tropical storm force winds extending over 250 miles from the center. Numerous tornadoes also continue along the east coast of Florida.

October 9, 12 p.m.

There has been another slight reduction in wind intensity with Milton but it is still coming in as a Cat 4 hurricane with 145 mph max sustained winds. Milton is expected to make landfall as a Cat 3 or 4 in the central Florida peninsula tonight.

October 9, 9:00 a.m.

A slight reduction in wind intensity Wednesday morning as Milton gets closer to Florida’s Gulf coast. Milton is still a powerful and dangerous storm packing winds of 155 mph. The system is still expected to lose wind intensity during the day Wednesday as it encounters dry air and increased shear, and is expected to remain a major hurricane late Wednesday or early Thursday morning. Life-threatening storm surge, winds, and flooding rains will be possible.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Leslie continues to track northwest in the open Atlantic, and is expected to briefly strengthen before weakening as it turns northeastward later this week. No direct impacts to land are expected.

October 8, 4:00 p.m.

Milton has once again strengthened again into a Category 5 hurricane with estimated winds of 165 mph. The storm has also doubled in size since it first hit Category 5 status yesterday.

October 8, 9:00 a.m.

Milton remains a powerful and dangerous storm. Milton currently a Category 4 storm but is expected to regain wind intensity back up to Cat. 5 later this afternoon after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. As Milton makes a turn to the northeast, the outer rain bands coming ashore can produce tornadoes across much of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. A life-threatening record surge is expected in Tampa Bay, where there can be 10 to 15 feet of storm surge. Milton is forecast to make landfall as a Cat. 3 major hurricane, but they can potentially make landfall at the Cat. 4 strength since it is possible the shear to the west will not be as strong as previously thought.

Hurricane Leslie is slowly losing intensity in the open central Atlantic and is not expected to directly impact land. The NHC has also highlighted two areas for potential development, but neither will impact Texas.

October 7, 10:00 p.m.

Milton’s winds weakened to 165 mph, but it’s still a Category 5 storm. The weakening is due to an eyewall replacement cycle. It may very well stay a Category 5 storm through Tuesday since it’ll be moving through a very warm eddy of water called the Loop Current. It’s expected to hit the west coast of Florida near Tampa Bay Wednesday night as at least a Category 3 hurricane.

October 7, 4:00 p.m.

Category 5 Hurricane Milton is now tied with Hurricane Rita for the third strongest hurricane on record over the Gulf of Mexico with winds of 180 mph and gusts up to 220 mph. It is still expected to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane Wednesday night along Florida’s west coast with a storm surge up to 15 feet possible in Tampa Bay.

October 7, 12:40 p.m.

Category 5 Hurricane Milton continues to intensify at a jaw-dropping rate with winds now at 175 mph and the pressure down to 911 mb.

The pressure is still dropping, which means Milton is still gaining strength. Do not be deceived by the drop in Category predicted before landfall in Florida. Both Hurricanes Katrina and Rita did the same thing in 2005 over the Gulf of Mexico and both produced catastrophic storm surges when they made landfall.

October 7, 11 a.m.

Milton has explosively intensified into a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds. Category 5 begins at 157 mph. Hurricane Hunters are finding that the storm is still rapidly strengthening with the pressure dropping again to 925 millibars. The hurricane is still projected to make landfall as a major Category 3 storm along Florida’s west coast Wednesday evening. Due to the large storm surge predicted to go as high as 12 feet, evacuation orders are now underway in many coastal communities, and local residents are encouraged to heed the advice of their local emergency managers.

October 7, 10 a.m.

Milton is now on the cusp of Category 5 status with 155 mph winds. Category 5 begins at 157 mph. The hurricane is still projected to make landfall as a major Category 3 storm along Florida’s west coast Wednesday evening. Due to the large storm surge predicted to go as high as 12 feet, evacuation orders are now underway in many coastal communities, and local residents are encouraged to heed the advice of their local emergency managers.

October 7, 9 a.m.

Milton rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane early Monday morning, sustained winds of 150 mph. Milton will continue to strengthen over the Gulf. As it approaches landfall, Milton will remain a major hurricane with winds closer to 125 mph. Tropical storm, hurricane and storm surge watches have been issued all along the Gulf coast of Florida, including inland counties. Rainfall forecasts between 5-10″ with isolated spots over 15″ will be possible. Storm surge forecast along Tampa Bay, 8-12′.

Meanwhile, deeper in the Atlantic, Leslie is slowly losing intensity as a Category 1 hurricane in the open central Atlantic and is not expected to directly impact land. Hurricane Kirk is becoming less organized in the northern Atlantic and is anticipated to bring heavy rain and strong winds to western Europe later this week.

October 6, 4 p.m.

Milton continues to rapidly intensify and is now a Cat. 1 hurricane. Milton is expected to become a Cat. 4 hurricane by Tuesday as it moves east through the Gulf. The latest track has Milton making landfall in the western coast of Florida Wednesday as a major hurricane. No impacts to Texas.

October 6, 9 a.m.

Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward in the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Unfortunately conditions look conducive for Milton to become a major hurricane by the time we get to Tuesday. It is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane Wednesday somewhere along the western coastline of Florida. No impacts to Texas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin we also have hurricane Hurricane Kirk and Hurricane Leslie, though neither are going to impact the US.

October 5, 4 p.m.

And now we have Tropical Storm Milton. Milton is currently in the western Gulf but is expected to move east through the Gulf as we head into this next week. Unfortunately conditions look conducive for development and Milton could become a major hurricane by the time we get to Tuesday. It is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane Wednesday somewhere along the western coastline of Florida. No impacts to Texas.

October 5, 10 a.m.

TD 14 has formed in the Gulf, and the National Hurricane Center expects that within 48 hours it will reach hurricane strength. There will be no direct impact to Texas, but Florida is expected to be impacted next week. Anyone with travel plans to the Florida Peninsula, or friends and family in the area should monitor this system, currently expected to hit Florida as a Cat 2 or stronger storm mid-week.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin we also have hurricane Hurricane Kirk and Hurricane Leslie, though neither are going to impact the US.

October 4, 7 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center now gives the low pressure system in the southwest Gulf a high (70%) chance of developing into the season’s next named storm. This system will have no impact to Texas, but Florida could take a direct hit from it on Wednesday, potentially as a hurricane. The next name on the list is “Milton.”

October 4, 9 a.m.

We’ve still got our eyes on the Gulf, monitoring a broad area of low pressure with a 40% chance of development. Regardless of whether or not this area becomes a named storm, the impacts to Texas are essentially zero, as a cold front pushes system into Florida next week.

We’re also watching two named storms in the Atlantic, Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie, neither of which pose any threat to the United States.

October 3, 8 a.m.

We continue to monitor the Gulf of Mexico as a broad area of low pressure remains over the Gulf through next week, and although some showers and thunderstorms from this can expand into the area this weekend, we aren’t looking at any tropical system for the western Gulf through next week. High pressure will push this area farther south, and any potential tropical feature would be more likely pushed into Florida. Regardless of development, heavy rain will spread across the Florida Peninsula, which could lead to flooding concerns early next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Kirk is now a major hurricane, and is expected to bring some impacts to the Azores and western Europe later next week. Tropical Storm Leslie has developed over the central Atlantic, and is not
expected to bring impacts to land.

October 2, 7 p.m.

Tropical development odds for the low pressure in the Gulf just dropped down to 30%. Regardless of development, there will be hardly any impacts to Texas from this one.

October 2, 7 a.m.

Kirk has become a hurricane and is expected to intensify into a major hurricane as it churns over the central Atlantic. It is not expected to directly impact land, but can have an effect on shipping routes.

We are also monitoring a tropical wave in the western Caribbean that has a medium chance of tropical development later this week into early next week as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. It has the potential to make another direct impact to portions of the Southeast U.S. At this time, it is looking like whatever does develop will stay well east of our area.

Out in the central Atlantic, there is an area of disturbed weather southwest of the Cabo Verde islands that has a high chance of developing today into later this week behind Kirk.

October 1, 8 a.m.

Both Joyce and Isaac have dissipated. Tropical Storm Kirk is likely to become a hurricane tomorrow. It’s expected to turn northwest, then north in the mid-Atlantic Ocean later this week. It is not expected to directly impact land, but can have an effect on shipping routes.

We are also monitoring a tropical wave in the western Caribbean that has a medium chance of tropical development later this week into early next week as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. It has the potential to make another direct impact to the Southeast U.S. At this time, it is looking like whatever does develop will stay well east of our area.

Out in the central Atlantic, there is an area of disturbed weather southwest of the Cabo Verde islands that has a high chance of developing today into later this week behind Kirk.

September 30, 8 a.m.

Isaac continues to race northeastward as a tropical storm in the northern Atlantic, but expected to become post-tropical later today.

Joyce continues to track north in the central Atlantic, also expected to lose its tropical characteristics. Both Joyce and Isaac are not expected to impact land.

Farther south and east in the central Atlantic, Tropical Depression 12 has formed west of the Cabo Verde islands and is expected to become a tropical storm later today and will likely take on the name Kirk. We are monitoring an area in the southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean with a medium chance of tropical development this week into this weekend that has the potential to make another direct impact to the Southeast U.S. At this time, it is looking like whatever does develop will stay well east of our area. We’ll let you know if anything changes.

There is also an area in the Eastern Atlantic located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next 7 days. This system is expected to slowly move west toward the central Atlantic.

September 29, 11:00 a.m.

The National Hurricane Center has tagged an area in the Eastern Caribbean and central Gulf of Mexico for a 50% chance of tropical development. It is simply too early to know if a storm will develop, or where any potential storm could end up if one does develop. For now most forecast modeling keeps any potential storm away from Texas, but we’ll need to remain vigilant and monitor this area through next week.

Outside of the Gulf we have 2 named systems, Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce in the Atlantic, but neither pose a threat to the United States.

September 28, 11:00 a.m.

We currently have 3 named storms in the Atlantic Basin. Helene is now post-tropical, and is quickly diminishing after bringing catastrophic winds, rain, and surge to the southeast. In the Atlantic we also have Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce, though neither will be a threat to the US.

Our concern is an area of potential development in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, currently pegged by the NHC as a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression or named storm. It’s a bit early in the game to know if a storm will develop, or where it could end up, but as of now I would not call it a “high risk” for Texas, just something we’ll need to keep a watch on in the coming days.

September 27, 7:00 a.m.

Helene downgraded to a tropical storm Friday morning, but it continues to bring flooding rains and damaging winds to parts of Georgia and Carolinas.

Isaac has strengthened to a hurricane in the North Atlantic and will move east without impacts to land.

The NHC has also tagged a new area to monitor in the northwestern Caribbean for development. Formation odds are low for now at 30 percent, but the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a high probability for development for the first week of October. We are watching this closely.

September 26, 10:30 p.m.

Hurricane Helene made landfall as a major Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. The National Weather Service said the eye landed in Florida’s Big Bend region.

September 26, 5:20 p.m.

Hurricane Helene is now a major Category 4 wind storm with 130 mph winds. It now moving at a forward speed at 23 mph and could continue to intensity up until landfall this evening.

September 26, 2 p.m.

Hurricane Helene is now a major Category 3 wind storm with 120 mph winds. It is accelerating toward Florida’s Big Bend and will move quickly through Georgia overnight. Due to this unprecedented combination of strength and forward speed in this part of the country, the storm surge will be catastrophic and possibly record-setting. New hurricane model data also indicates hurricane-force wind gusts of 80-100 mph will be common across much of the eastern half of Georgia. Sustained wind speeds will be significantly lower, but the gusts will do significant damage to trees, buildings, and power infrastructure from Florida to Georgia and possible into the western Carolinas, too.

September 26, 10 a.m.

Helene becomes a Category 2 hurricane is expected to intensify to a Cat 3 Hurricane at landfall near Apalachicola this evening. Helene is a large hurricane with a large portion of the southeast US likely to see impacts such as life-threatening flooding, damaging winds, power outages and isolated tornadoes. There can be up to 15-20 feet of storm surge flooding for much of the Big Bend of Florida.

Tropical Storm Isaac has formed in the North Atlantic and will move east without impacts to land.

September 25, 4 p.m.

Helene is still a Category 1 hurricane as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is now expected to become an even stronger hurricane… becoming a Cat 4 with 130 mph winds by Thursday afternoon. Landfall expected in the Big Bend region of Florida Thursday evening. Helene is on track to remain a hurricane as it moves north through Georgia… weakening to a tropical storm in northern Georgia.

September 25, 10 a.m.

Helene becomes a hurricane. Helene has been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph max sustained winds as it makes its way into the southeastern Gulf. Helene is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before making landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida Thursday evening. Life threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rains are anticipated across parts of Florida with hurricane force wind gusts possible all the way north into Atlanta, Georgia.

September 25, 7 a.m.

Helene remains a strong Tropical Storm Helene as it brushes the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is expected to move north into the southeastern Gulf Wednesday nearing hurricane strength. It looks to most likely make landfall in the Big Bend or Panhandle area of Florida Thursday as a major Category 3 or higher hurricane. No impacts are expected for Texas.

September 24, 10 a.m.

The system in the Caribbean has organized and is now classified as Tropical Storm Helene. Helene should enter the southern Gulf tomorrow as a strong tropical storm or a cat. 1 hurricane. It then looks to move north towards the Florida coastline… most likely making landfall in the panhandle or Big Bend region of Florida. Helene will have the capability to become a major hurricane before making landfall. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect for the western coast of Florida.

September 24, 7 a.m.

Potential Storm Nine is expected to organize and strengthen over the next day or so. It should enter the Gulf on Wednesday as a strong tropical storm or a Cat 1 hurricane. The track moves it to the north/northeast making landfall somewhere between the panhandle of Florida or down near Tampa on Thursday. The Gulf is conducive for rapid intensification so a Cat. 3 storm at landfall will be a possibility.

September 23, 10 a.m.

We are still keeping a close eye on the disorganized area of showers and storms in the Caribbean. The NHC has now designated this disturbance as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. They are anticipating this to organize and get a more defined area of circulation within the next couple of days. It should enter the Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong tropical storm or a Cat 1 hurricane. The track moves it to the north/northeast making landfall somewhere between the panhandle of Florida or down near Tampa on Thursday. The Gulf is conducive for rapid intensification so a strong Cat. 2 at landfall will be a possibility.

September 23, 7 a.m.

We continue to monitor a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean. Development odds have increased to an 80 percent chance during the next 48 hours. If this system gets a name, it would be Helene. This system is expected to drift north toward the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba on Tuesday. As the storm continues to move north, it is expected to become a hurricane by the time it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the steering pattern suggests this system will move toward the Panhandle of Florida later this week and away from Texas.

September 21, 7 a.m.

There are currently four areas across the Atlantic, including the Gulf of Mexico, to monitor for potential activity over the next 7 days. The three in the deep tropics across the Atlantic Ocean all have a low chance of developing over the next 7 days. However, the region in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico now has 60% odds of forming over the next 7 days. While it’s still too early to tell if we could see any tropics impacts here in Southeast Texas, but it bodes watching for sure.

September 20, 8 a.m.

After a relative lull in tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico over the past couple of weeks, tropical development will be possible early next week in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico region. Formation odds remain at 40 percent that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form over the next 7 days. There are a lot of scenarios on the table for what it could do and where it could go, so our best advice right now is to simply stay weather aware until we get a better handle on where it is likely to track.

September 19, 8 a.m.

Remnants of Gordon continues to churn over the central Atlantic and is expected to reorganize later this week posing no threat to the US. There is an area

There is an area of low pressure just west of Gordon’s remnants producing disorganized showers and storms. Environmental conditions could become favorable for development as this system moves over the open Atlantic through early next week. Formation odds are low at 20 percent.

Another area we are monitoring covers the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This broad area of low pressure has a medium chance of development during the next 7 days. Formation odds at 40 percent. A tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.

September 18, 8 a.m.

Remnants of Gordon is forecast to again become a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60 percent chance for development during the next 7 days. No threat to land as it remains over the open Atlantic.

The NHC has also tagged a new area to monitor in the northwestern Caribbean for development. Formation odds are low for now at 20 percent, but the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a medium to high probability for development before the end of the month. We are watching this closely.

September 17, 8 a.m.

Gordon out in the open Atlantic remains a tropical depression but is forecast to again become a tropical storm by Wednesday morning, and poses no threat to land.

The Gulf and Caribbean remain quiet for now and tropical development is not expected through the weekend.

The Climate Prediction Center has highlighted an area over the western Caribbean, or southeast Gulf of Mexico for tropical development between September 25-October 1st for potential development. Development odds remain low, however tropical development could be possible in this area due to low wind shear and warm waters over the Caribbean and Gulf. We’ll be watching it closely.

September 16, 9 a.m.

We continue to monitor Potential Storm Eight as it is expected to strengthen into tropical storm Helene before making landfall in the Carolinas late Monday afternoon/evening.

Meanwhile out in the open Atlantic Gordon is now a tropical depression. Outside of these two systems, we do next expect any tropical development in other areas for the next several days.

September 15,11 a.m.

Tropical Storm Gordon continues to gradually slow and weaken in the open Atlantic, it will dissipate long before reaching the US.

In the meantime the Gulf remains quiet, with the only area of potential development coming of the southeast coast of the United States. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a named storm, there will be no impacts to the Gulf Coast.

September 14,11 a.m.

Tropical Storm Gordon will gradually weaken and dissipate in the Atlantic today and tomorrow. It poses no threat to the United States or Caribbean.

Another area of potential development off coast of the Southeast U.S. now has a 50% chance of developing according to the National Hurricane Center, and will bring rain through the east coast, but will have no impact on our weather in Texas.

September 13,1 p.m.

Tropical Storm Gordon has formed in the Atlantic. It will slowly put on the breaks before reaching the Caribbean, and could U-turn back to the east before dissipating. The storm poses no threat to the United States.

Elsewhere we are monitoring a few disturbances with a low chance of development, but none are expected to impact us here in Southeast Texas.

September 13, 7 a.m.

Remnants of Francine will continue to slowly move northwestward in northeast Arkansas. Pockets of heavy rain will continue across the lower Ohio Valley through Friday morning. While the major rivers in these areas are unlikely to see significant flooding, small stream and urban flooding is likely to occur.

In the central Atlantic, Tropical Depression Seven continues to move generally to the west over the open waters of the central Atlantic. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. No direct impacts to land are expected from this storm.

Additionally, an area of disturbed weather off the Carolina coast has a low chance for development. Regardless of development it is expected to produce heavy rain, gusty winds and dangerous seas for that region.

September 12, 8 a.m.

Francine continues to weaken, now a tropical depression. However, this system is expected to bring heavy rain and high winds to portions of Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Thursday and Friday.

Elsewhere, we are monitoring an area of disturbed weather off the coast of the Carolinas for potential tropical development early next week. Tropical Depression Seven has been classified in the open Atlantic, and will track over the open waters throughout the week eventually becoming Tropical Storm Gordon.

Two tropical waves in the open Atlantic are being monitored for development as well.

September 11, 9 p.m.

Francine continues to weaken as it moves northeast through Louisiana. It is now a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. We also have Tropical Depression Seven that is just west of the coast of Africa that could become Tropical Storm Gordon overnight into Thursday.

September 11, 7 p.m.

Francine continues to move northeast through Louisiana dropping over a half a foot of rain in New Orleans and causing a flash flood emergency there. Francine is weakening but is still a cat 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds.

September 11, 5 p.m.

Francine has made landfall in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.

September 11, 4 p.m.

Francine strengthens to a Cat 2 hurricane with 100 mph sustained winds. Francine is expected to make an official landfall in Louisiana near Morgan City within the next couple of hours. Light rain bands continue to move through SE Texas. Rain chances decrease later tonight.

September 11, 11 a.m.

Francine is strong Category one hurricane at it approaches Louisiana. The storm is expected to make landfall later Wednesday evening as a high-end Category one storm. A life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected to move in as early as Noon. Power outages could stretch cross the southern half of the state as Francine makes landfall.

September 11, 7 a.m.

Hurricane Francine is expected to make landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane Wednesday afternoon. Francine will bring heavy rain, strong winds, and dangerous storm surge to much of coastal Louisiana and Mississippi.

We are also monitoring several areas for development. An area off the Carolina coast is being monitored for potential tropical development early next week. Three other areas in the open Atlantic are being monitored for potential
development. None of which pose a threat to the Gulf at this time.

September 10, 6:30 p.m.

Francine is now a cat 1 hurricane as it continues northeast tracking towards the Louisiana coastline. Francine should make landfall Wednesday afternoon in Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane. Impacts in SE TX look to remain minimal with a chance for breezy winds and scattered showers. Along our coast, we could see coastal flooding with storm surge between 1-3 feet. Also along the coast, we could see wind gusts near 40 mph.

September 10, 4 p.m.

The Tropical Storm Watches for the Southeast Texas coastline have been dropped for the region. The only weather alert in effect is the Coastal Flooding Warning as high tides and rain could lead to street and area flooding over the next 24 hours. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet can’t be ruled out in spots, especially closer to High Island and the Sabine Pass.

Tropical Storm Francine is picking up speed as well, moving northeast at 10 mph and pulling away from the Texas coast.

September 10, 1 p.m.

Francine continues to move northeast through the Gulf as a strong tropical storm. It is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane by this evening. It’s latest track takes it northeast into Louisiana Wednesday afternoon/evening as a Cat 1 hurricane. Overall it looks like impacts from Francine to SE Texas will be limited. The main impacts will be along our coastline including coastal flooding from 1-3 feet of storm surge and wind gusts close to 40 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Palacios and along the coastline up through the Bolivar Peninsula due to the gusty winds. We will also be watching for rainbands moving through SE Texas. Most areas should see less than an inch of rainfall but in isolated spots we could see heavier rain which could lead to the potential of flooding. The overall flooding threat due to rainfall is low for SE Texas but can’t completely ruled out… even for areas inland if we see a particularly heavy tropical rain shower. Inland, we could see some breezy winds… sustained winds near 20-25 mph and gusts near 30 mph. We should start to see winds pick up late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Scattered rain chances continue through the afternoon/evening on Wednesday.

September 10, 10 a.m.

Francine remains a strong tropical storm with winds of 65 mph and gusts up to 75 mph. The storm has also started to make a northeasterly jog into the Gulf of Mexico, which is good news for Southeast Texas. If the storm continues to track away from the Texas coastline today, then the impacts from Francine will continue to be minimal at best of most of Southeast Texas. The exception is for our coastline where a Tropical storm Watch and Coastal Flood Warning are still in effect.

Additionally, the latest forecast track has Francine making landfall in Louisiana Wednesday as a high-end Category one hurricane. While the intensity at landfall might have gone down slightly, the impacts remain the same. Up to a 10 foot strong surge and hurricane force winds could lead to life-threatening conditions for those along the Louisiana coast.

September 10, 7 A.m.

Tropical Storm Francine, currently located over the western Gulf of Mexico, will track near the northeastern Mexico and south Texas coastline through Tuesday before approaching the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. Francine will remain in a favorable environment for further strengthening through the middle of the week. Francine should strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday morning with a landfall expected along the Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane.

Rough surf and coastal inundation can be expected with the approach of Francine. A surge of 1-3 feet is forecast for a broad area along much of the Gulf coast. A storm surge of 3-6 feet can occur from near the Texas and Louisiana border eastward to near Gulfport, Mississippi, with a storm surge of 6-10 feet expected along portions of the central and western Louisiana coast. An even higher storm surge of 10-15 feet is expected near and just east of where Francine makes landfall along the coast of Louisiana.

September 9, 10 p.m.

After showing signs of rapid strengthening earlier today, Francine has leveled off after taking in a gulp of dry air. Strengthening is expected to resume overnight, and it is likely to become a hurricane Tuesday morning. The forecast track remains essentially the same with Francine’s eye expected to stay roughly 100 miles offshore from Galveston Island on its closest approach Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. We expect it will be business as usual for most tomorrow night and Wednesday, but if you live within 10 miles of the coast continue to keep your guard up as it could get a little rough Tuesday night, especially right along the water.

September 9, 4 p.m.

Francine has shifted westward, pushing the predicted track closer to the Texas coast before it makes landfall Wednesday in Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the entire Texas coastline except from High Island to Sabine Pass, which is now under a Tropical Storm Warning. It is now expected to pass by our coast offshore as a Category 2 hurricane Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. For our local coastline, we expect a storm surge tide of 1 to 3 feet above normally dry ground, a few inches of rain, and wind gusts over 50 mph. Impacts for inland communities like Houston will be minimal with less than one inch of rain likely and wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range.

September 9, 10 a.m.

As of the 10 a.m. update from the NHC, a well-defined circulation has been established, so Potential Storm Six becomes Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of 50 mph. Francine is expected to strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday before making landfall in Louisiana. We still could see coastal impacts here in SE Texas including elevated tides/surge, rain, and gusty winds. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for our waters from Freeport and northeast.

September 9, 7 a.m.

Potential Storm Six remains disorganized but according to the National Hurricane’s official forecast, it should strengthen to tropical storm Francine later today. This system is forecast to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall somewhere along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts by Wednesday.

We are also watching two separate areas in the central Atlantic, west of Africa. Both systems have a medium chance of development Wednesday into Friday.

September 8, 10 p.m.

Potential Storm Six continues to strengthen in the Bay of Campeche with winds of 50 mph and gusts up to 65 mph. However, the system does not have a defined center which is why it’s not a named storm yet. Potential Storm Six is expected to become Francine Monday evening as it begins to shift north into the western Gulf of Mexico.

Soon-to-be Francine will then track closely along the Texas Coast Tuesday and Wednesday, potentially strengthening to a Category one hurricane off the Southeast Texas coast before making landfall Wednesday evening as a high-end Category one storm.

It’s important to note that without a well-defined center, it’s still too early to let our guard down in Southeast Texas. Some computer model tracks bring Francine closer to Houston with a potential landfall in Southeast Texas Wednesday. Tropical Storm, Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued as early as Monday.

September 8, 4 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center has issued its first forecast for Potential Storm Six, and it is predicted to pass by or over the upper Texas coast as a hurricane on Wednesday. Watches are likely to come for our coast later this evening.

September 8, 7 a.m.

What will likely soon be “Tropical Storm Francine” continues to gather strength in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. According to the National Hurricane Center, current development odds on the storm becoming a tropical depression or stronger are up to 90%.

The question of course is whether or not this storm will have any direct impact on us here in Southeast Texas. While it’s too early to know for sure, here are our current thoughts. Most forecast models have future-Francine paralleling the Texas Gulf coast and making an eventual landfall in Louisiana. This path would bring our greatest impacts to our coastal communities, including the potential for flooding rains, storm surge, and gusty winds. Impacts farther inland are far from set in stone, and will vary significantly based on the eventual path of the storm. While widespread wind impacts are not the most likely scenario, they can’t fully be dismissed either. We have tagged Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday and ABC 13 Weather Watch days while we wait for more reliable and consistent model data. Wednesday will likely be the day where the low pressure is closest to our coast, and thus likely our highest impact day.

A hurricane hunter plane will fly into the storm later today, hopefully providing us with greater confidence in the eventual forecast outcome.

September 7, 7 p.m.

An area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche continues to swirl with disorganized showers and thunderstorms around it. Over the next 2 to 5 days though, this tropical low has a high probability of developing into a tropical depression or storm, thus potentially becoming Francine.

This tropical low will then have an open door to track into the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, potentially impacting the Texas Coast. Still, there is uncertainty to the system’s future intensity, impacts and any potential landfall location. For now, Southeast Texas has an ABC13 Weather Watch for Tuesday through Thursday because of what could develop in the tropics. At a minimum, this would mean a few rain days for Houston. On the flip side, those along the Texas coast should be aware of the chance they’ll need to prepare for tropical impacts next week.

September 7, 7 a.m.

A tropical disturbance crossing over the Yucatan Peninsula now has a 60% chance of development according to the National Hurricane Center. There’s still some uncertainty on the extent of development, as well as the eventual track of this system, but we’ve issued ABC13 Weather Watch days for Tuesday and Wednesday as tropical moisture streams into Southeast Texas with the approach of this tropical low. It is possible that this low pressure eventually becomes a named storm in the western Gulf. We’ll continue to monitor model trends through the weekend.

September 6 8 p.m.

A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula now has a 50% chance for development over the next 7 days as it heads towards the Bay of Campeche. That system may combine with the same area of low pressure that’s been giving us rain all week, and head towards the Texas coast next week. The most likely impact days would be Tuesday and Wednesday and we’ve made those days ABC13 Weather Watch days. Even if it doesn’t develop we’ll see a lot of moisture heading this way and that means more opportunities for heavy rain and flooding. If it does develop, strong winds and coastal flooding would be an issue. Stay tuned this weekend for the latest updates!

September 6 9 a.m.

We are entering peak hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin, and there are numerous areas of potential development that we’re keeping an eye on. The most noteworthy of the 4 areas highlighted by the National Hurricane Center are two areas of potential development in the Gulf, both of which have low development odds. The low pressure system that has been bringing widespread rains throughout this week will gradually sink south, merging it’s moisture with a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche. Low pressure will then lift north back towards the Texas Gulf coast, bringing us widespread rain through the middle of next week.

While we likely will be dealing with widespread rains next week, the odds of a named system impacting Texas remain low.

September 5 7 a.m.

We are watching five disturbances and all five have low chances of development. Low pressure just off the Texas coast has a 10 percent chance of development. Regardless of development, this system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to our coastal areas Thursday.

Along with the tropical low near the coast of Texas, we are also watching the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. This system is expected to move west towards the Yucatan Peninsula/Central America through the end of the week. It eventually could make its way into the southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche. Overall, it looks like it will have a low chance of development, but we will keep a close eye on it.

September 4 7 a.m.

We are watching three disturbances in the Atlantic and all three have low chances of development. The one we are watching the closest is in the Caribbean and is expected to move west towards the Yucatan Peninsula/Central America through the end of the week. It eventually could make its way into the southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche. Overall, it looks like it will have a low chance of development but we will keep a close eye on it. Lastly, there is a chance we could see an area of low pressure form just off the Texas coast which could bring heavy rain to our coastline Thursday. We can’t rule out it trying to develop into an actual tropical system but the chances of that seem low at this point. Even if it did try to develop, the impacts should stay the same for us here in Southeast Texas… a chance for heavy rain and gusty winds near the coast.

September 3 7 a.m.

The tropics remain active, but there are no named tropical systems. We are monitoring several tropical waves for potential development. A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles has a medium development chance for development over the next 7 days. Formation odds at 40 percent. Another wave coming off the western coast of Africa has a medium chance of development as well.

A new tropical wave in the central Atlantic has the lowest odds of formation at 10 percent during the next 7 days.

September 2 7 a.m.

There are no named tropical systems, however we are tracking several tropical waves for potential development. A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles has a medium development chance for development over the next 7 days. Formation odds at 40 percent. Another wave coming off the western coast of Africa has a medium chance of development as well.

We are still monitoring a low pressure system just off the Texas coast which is currently bringing us our stormy weather. Formation odds have lowered to 10%, but this system will continue to transport showers and storms in our direction through early this week without ever becoming a named system.

September 1 10 a.m.

September marks the peak of hurricane season, and we’re monitoring a handful of disturbances that could bring our next named storm.

The closest to home being a low pressure system just off the Texas coast which is currently bringing us our active pattern of weather. While there is a 20% chance of development with that system, the overwhelmingly likelihood is that it will just continue to spin showers and storms in our direction through early next week without ever becoming a named system.

The best odds for development come from a disturbance in the western Atlantic that is headed to the Caribbean next week. While the NHC has it tagged for a 40% chance of development, models have been very inconsistent with any eventual outcome on this storm, so it’s too early to know if it will become a named storm or where it might head if it does eventually become more organized. We’ll keep a watch on it.

August 31 11 a.m.

A tropical wave approaching the Caribbean is now highlighted for a 50% chance of development by the National Hurricane Center. Some forecast models eventually strengthen this system into a hurricane in the Gulf, though it’s still far too early are too far away to have any real confidence in an eventual outcome. For now, it’s just another potential tropical system we’ll be keeping a close eye on.

Closer to home the low pressure responsible for bringing our active weather pattern remains just off the Texas Coast, and has a 20% chance of tropical development. It is highly unlikely that it becomes anything other than a rain-maker, but it will continue to bring soaking rains to Southeast Texas through the weekend and beyond.

August 30 2 p.m.

A new area of potential development has been highlighted by National Hurricane Center directly off the coast of Texas. This low pressure system that is being spot-lighted is the very same system that is bringing us a rainy weather pattern through the holiday weekend. The odds are strongly in our favor that this storm will not become a named system, and the NHC has capped development odds at just 20%. Regardless, it will likely spin some rain our way throughout the weekend and beyond.

Elsewhere, there are two tropical waves we are monitoring for potential development in the open Atlantic. The leading one has a 40% chance of development, and should be entering the Caribbean midweek, with potential impacts to Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula by next weekend. We’re still far enough out that the forecast is far from set in stone, and it’s too early to determine if that system could eventually make it into the Gulf of Mexico or not.

August 29 7 a.m.

A tropical wave over the central Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, conditions are becoming more conducive for gradual development of this system over the next 7 days. Formation odds have increased to 40% and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast to move westward across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of next week.

August 28 7 a.m.

The Atlantic basin coming alive as August comes to an end. There are two tropical waves to monitor in the coming days for development. Formation odds between 10 to 20 percent over the next 7 days, but environmental conditions will become more favorable for these systems to develop this weekend into early next week.

August 27 7 a.m.

We are monitoring an area of low pressure that could form in the central Atlantic in a few days. Formation odds are low for now, but environmental conditions will become conducive for this system to slowly develop this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

August 26 7 a.m.

Low pressure is expected to sit over us this week, but is unlikely to development into anything tropical. However, this system will reduce wind shear over the tropical wave coming into the Gulf. This type of pattern in the past has led to unexpected tropical development missed by our computer models. Given we are in peak hurricane season, we’ll surely keep an eye on it for you, but we are not expecting development at this time.

Aside from the disturbance in the Gulf this week, we are also monitoring tropical waves about to emerge from Africa that could spin up ahead of Labor Day weekend somewhere over the Atlantic or Caribbean.

August 25 10 a.m.

A low pressure system moving through the northern Gulf of Mexico will increase rain chances for us as we kick off the work week, but it’s unlikely that we’re talking about any tropical development. There are no active storms in the Atlantic Basin, nor is there any development expected over the next 7 days.

In the Pacific things are much more active, with Hurricane Hone impacting Hawaii and Hurricane Gilma not far behind. Thankfully the storms in the Pacific will have no impact on our weather here in Southeast Texas.

August 24 7 a.m.

We’re not expected any tropical development over the next 7 days, but an increase in tropical moisture could increase rain chances through next week. Right now we have rain chances climbing to 60% by Tuesday and Wednesday, and we’ll monitor the Gulf to see if anything attempts to spin up.

August 23 7 a.m.

Tropical development is not expected during the next 7 days, however we’re monitoring a low-pressure disturbance coming in from the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This low has non-tropical origins, but it could still spin up some healthy downpours. Right now, we have a chance of rain climbing to 60% next Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a remote chance this disturbance could eventually develop into a tropical depression or storm, but either way, it should send some rain into the Texas coastline.

We are also monitoring tropical waves about to emerge from Africa that could spin up ahead of Labor Day weekend somewhere over the Atlantic or Caribbean.

August 22 7 a.m.

While the Atlantic basin is quiet with no tropical development expected over the next several days, we will need to monitor a rainmaking feature progged to traverse from the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the Texas coast this weekend for a potential “homegrown” system.

August 21 7 a.m.

Tropical development is not expected during the next 7 days, however we’re monitoring a low-pressure disturbance coming in from the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This low has non-tropical origins, but it could still spin up some healthy downpours. Right now, we have a chance of rain climbing to 40% next Tuesday through Thursday. There is a remote chance this disturbance could eventually develop into a tropical depression or storm, but either way, it should send some rain into the Texas coastline.

We are also monitoring tropical waves about to emerge from Africa that could spin up ahead of Labor Day weekend somewhere over the Atlantic or Caribbean.

August 20 7 a.m.

Ernesto continues to race northeastward over the northern Atlantic and will weaken rapidly later this week. Otherwise, the tropical Atlantic looks quiet through this week due to dry air and Saharan dust, so no development of any tropical waves are expected at this time.

August 19 7 a.m.

Hurricane Ernesto is curving northeastward in the open Atlantic and expected to rapidly weaken as it moves over cooler waters. Otherwise, the tropical Atlantic looks quiet through this week due to dry air and Saharan dust, so no development of any tropical waves are expected at this time.

Climate outlooks through the end of the month hint at activity ramping up across the Atlantic as we head into September.

August 18 4 p.m.

Ernesto has strengthened to a hurricane once again with winds of 75 mph and gusts up to 90 mph. Ernesto will stay over the Atlantic Ocean into early next week as it charges north, making a close pass by Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Strong swells and rip current remain a risk along the eastern seaboard because of Ernesto.

The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and deep tropics remain quiet with no new development expected over the next 7 days.

August 18 10 a.m.

Let’s start with the good stuff: The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, with no expected development over the next 7 days. Even the extended forecast from the National Hurricane Center is not showing anything developing over the Gulf, so my hope is that we can remains clear in our neck of the woods through the end of the month.

Elsewhere, Ernesto has departed Bermuda and is slowly clearing northeast. The eastern seaboard of the US is dealing with elevated swells, rip currents, and coastal erosion as the storm continues out to sea.

August 17 10 a.m.

Ernesto has maintained hurricane strength after slamming Bermuda this morning. The storm will continue to gradually clear north and northeast away from Bermuda through the next few days, creating indirect impacts to the East Coast like coastal erosion and elevated surf.

The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, but the National Hurricane Center is highlighting a the main development zone in the Atlantic for potential storm development as we move through August and in to early September. There are no immediate threats, but we’ll keep an eye on the tropics as activity increases.

August 16 7 a.m.

Hurricane Ernesto has strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane, and will continue to gradually intensify as it moves toward Bermuda. From Friday into this weekend, Ernesto will bring strong winds, flooding rain, storm surge flooding and power outages to Bermuda as the storm passes. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents is expected along the U.S. East Coast through the end of the week. Heavy rain and gusty winds are then expected to impact southeastern Canada early next week as Ernesto approaches southeast Newfoundland.

August 15 7 a.m.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Bermuda as Ernesto continues to intensify and is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane over the next 36 hours. Ernesto will bring strong winds, flooding rain, storm surge
flooding and power outages to Bermuda. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents is expected along the U.S. East Coast later this week despite Ernesto remaining well off the coast.

August 14 10 a.m.

Ernesto is now a hurricane over the open waters of the Atlantic. It is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane by Friday then potentially make a direct hit on Bermuda Saturday. Big swells and strong rip currents will impact the East Coast for several days as Ernesto stays far away from the U.S. coastline.

August 14 7 a.m.

Ernesto continues to strengthen this morning and could become a hurricane later in the day Wednesday. Ernesto is moving northwest at 16 mph as a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and gusts up to 85 mph. The storm will continue to move north over the next few days, steered away from the United States by a large Bermuda high. However, strong rip currents are expected along the East Coast into the weekend as Ernesto approaches Bermuda as potentially a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.

Elsewhere, activity is quiet across the Gulf of Mexico and the deep tropics. Climate outlooks through the end of the month hint at activity ramping up across the Atlantic as we head into September.

August 13 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to track over the Lesser Antilles. Ernesto is forecast to track near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with heavy, flooding rainfall, locally damaging winds, and a risk for power outages Tuesday night into Wednesday. After moving away from Puerto Rico, the storm is expected to take a turn to the north and further intensify east of the Bahamas, becoming at least a Category 2 hurricane. This weekend, the storm may bring strong winds and flooding rain to Bermuda. Rough surf and rip currents are expected along the U.S. East Coast later this week.

August 12 4 p.m.

Potential Storm Five is now Tropical Storm Ernesto, and it is no threat to the Gulf of Mexico.. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and other islands in the northeast Caribbean. It is still expected to turn north before reaching the Bahamas as it becomes a hurricane and potentially threatens Bermuda this weekend.

August 12 7 a.m.

Potential Storm Five remains disorganized east of the Lesser Antilles. However, this system is expected to become a tropical storm over the next day or two, and would then be named “Ernesto”. Flooding rain, strong winds and storm surge will cross the Leeward Islands Monday into Tuesday. It is possible the storm strengthens into a hurricane as it tracks near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After moving away from Puerto Rico, the storm is expected to further intensify east of the Bahamas, becoming at least a Category 2 hurricane as it then tracks northward towards Bermuda.

August 11 4 p.m.

The tropical wave in the Atlantic has now become Potential Storm Five this afternoon. This disturbance is still hundreds of miles away from the Caribbean but is expected to form and become likely Tropical Storm Ernesto early this week as it approaches the Leeward Islands. Potential Storm Five could then impact Puerto Rico as a tropical storm or hurricane before turning north towards Bermuda later this week. So as of now, this storm poses no threat to Houston. However, some outlying model guidance has the system tracking further west into the Caribbean, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on Potential Storm Five, soon-to-be Ernesto, as it interacts with the islands this week.

August 11 10 a.m.

We are continuing to monitor a tropical wave in the Atlantic that will likely be “Ernesto” by midweek. While development odds are up to 90%, models have been in good agreement that the storm will curve north before ever reaching the Gulf of Mexico. We’ll continue to watch it, and any other potential storms, but for now there are no immediate concerns on our radar in SE Texas.

August 10 7 p.m.

The tropical wave in the main development region now has a 50% chance of forming by Monday, 90% chance over the next 7 days. This wave will likely become Ernesto, the next named storm of the season. And while this potential tropical system could form and cross into the Caribbean, there in strong model consensus that this potential system will curve north before reaching the Gulf of Mexico next week. Still, we’re keeping an eye on it.

August 10 10 a.m.

The odds of development on the tropical wave in the Atlantic keep climbing, we’re now up to a 30% chance of development by Monday and an 80% chance of development over the next week. Most forecast models turn the storm north before it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, so it is unlikely (though not fully impossible) that it ever poses a threat to us here in Texas.

August 9 7 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center now gives the large tropical wave over the central Atlantic a high (70%) chance of developing over the next 7 days. If it spins up before reaching the Caribbean, it will turn north and miss the Gulf of Mexico, but if it stays south of Puerto Rico and doesn’t develop until it passes by Hispaniola, then there is a pathway for it to enter the Gulf.

August 9 7 a.m.

Post-Tropical Storm Debby will continue to spread heavy, flooding rain across the Northeast today.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, there is a tropical wave that has a medium chance of development near the Greater and Lesser Antilles into early next week. If this system becomes a Tropical Storm and is named, it would be Ernesto.

August 8 1 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic a medium (40%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 7 days. Meanwhile, NOAA also released their updated hurricane outlook and are still predicting a potentially “hyperactive” season ahead with anywhere from 6 to 11 more hurricanes to form over the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.

August 8 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Debby made a second landfall near Bulls Bay, South Carolina early Thursday morning. Debby will continue to spread heavy, flooding rain across the Carolinas before it moves into the Northeast tomorrow.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, we are monitoring another tropical wave in the central Atlantic that has a low chance of development as it moves into the eastern Caribbean early next week. Formation odds are 30%.

August 7 7 a.m.

We’ve got some good news on the tropical wave in the Caribbean! The development odds are now down to just 10% and it looks like most of the moisture will stay south of the Texas-Mexico border.

However, a new outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates the tropics really picking up in the second half of August with two new potential development zones drawn in the Gulf of Mexico. While there is no specific threat to Texas at this time, it’s just a reminder that we are entering the most active time of the hurricane season and need to all stay aware in the weeks ahead during this busy back-to-school season.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby remains a major flood threat for portions of the Carolinas, but will move at a slow pace up the east coast bringing heavy rain and flooding to that part of the US. later this week.

August 6 7 p.m.

We’ve got some good news on the tropical wave in the Caribbean! The development odds are now down to just 20% and it looks like most of the moisture will stay south of the Texas-Mexico border.

That said, we also have a new outlook today from the Climate Prediction Center showing the tropics really picking up in the second half of August with two new potential development zones drawn in the Gulf of Mexico. While there is no specific threat to Texas at this time, it’s just a reminder that we are entering the most active time of the hurricane season and need to all stay aware in the weeks ahead during this busy back-to-school season.

August 6 7 a.m.

Debby still packing tropical storm force winds over southeast Georgia this morning. Debby will continue to slowly move to the northeast and will likely emerge over the Atlantic near Savannah, Georgia later today. Some re-strengthening is possible as Debby moves out over the warm waters east of South Carolina Wednesday. Debby is expected to move onshore again later this week over northeast South Carolina and can bring tropical downpours into the Northeast later this week into this weekend.

We also continue to monitor the tropical wave as it moves through the Caribbean. This has a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days.

August 5 12 p.m.

Debby made landfall at about 6 AM today as a deadly Category 1 hurricane along the coast of Florida. It is now a tropical storm that will move slowly up the east coast through the week bringing flash flooding to portions of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

We also continue to monitor the tropical wave that will be moving west into the Caribbean by Tuesday. This has a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days.

August 5 7 a.m.

Debby makes landfall along the Big Bend of Florida early Monday morning. From there, it will turn northeast and may emerge in the Atlantic just off the Georgia and South Carolina coast late Tuesday into Wednesday. It is also possible Debby could stall out along the Carolina coast, which could lead to a risk for major flooding. From Thursday and beyond, there is quite a bit of model disagreement with Debby’s track.

We are also monitoring a tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands that has a 30% chance of forming once it makes it’s way into the southern Caribbean later this week.

August 4 10 p.m.

Debby continues to rapidly strengthen tonight, now a hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph and gusts up to 90 mph. Debby is closing in Florida and will make landfall along Florida’s Big Bend region Monday morning as a Category one hurricane. A life-threatening storm surge is expected there along the coast as well as hurricane force winds. The surge could reach up to 10 feet in spots. Then the storm will slowly track across northern Florida, southern Georgia and into South Carolina, bringing tropical storm force winds and flooding rains. The amount of rain that could fall over the course of several days in this region could lead to “significant and catastrophic flash flooding.”

Elsewhere, a tropical wave currently east of the Windward Islands has 30% chance of forming once it makes it’s way into the southern Caribbean this week. This is a typical track storms can make in the month of August and it will have some favorable conditions for development, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on this wave throughout the week.

And in the Pacific, it’s much more active with Tropical Storms Carlotta, Daniel, Potential Storm Five and another wave that will likely become a storm this week.

August 4 8 a.m.

Tropical Storm Debby remains on track to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region on Monday, likely strengthening to a hurricane ahead of landfall. Debby is then expected to cross over Florida and slow it’s foreword movement off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. Flooding rains of over a foot are possible for parts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

While Debby will no impact us here in Texas, we have our eyes on another tropical wave that is attempting to strengthen as it approaches the Caribbean. For now the National Hurricane Center puts the development odds of this system at just 20%, but that number could increase in the coming days. A track like what we’re seeing from this system could eventually bring a system into the Gulf of Mexico, but it’s far too early to know if the storm will form, or where it could end up.

August 3 10 p.m.

Tropical Storm Debby has intensified tonight, now with sustained winds of 45 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. the central pressure also dropped four millibars to 1004 mb, a sign that the storm is strengthening. Adn with the increasing strength comes increasing impacts. Debby now set to make landfall as a high-end Category one hurricane along Florida’s big Bend region Monday, less than a year after Idalia made landfall at a major hurricane in August of 2023.

Tropical storm to hurricane force winds will impact much of the state of Florida through the weekend and into early next week, prompting tropical storm and hurricane warnings to be issued Saturday. A life threatening storm surge will accompany Debby too, now expected to be as high as 10 feet in the Big Bend region. Cities like Tampa Bay, Fort Myers and Tallahassee could see a surge of 2 to 5 feet.

Once Debby makes landfall, the storm will slowly move north across the state and towards the Atlantic Ocean. this could lead to flooding across Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas next week with heavy rains in the forecast for several days.

August 3 4 p.m.

We now have Tropical Storm Debby in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, forming late Saturday afternoon north of Cuba. Debby has winds of 40 mph, wind gusts of 50 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb. Debby will continue to quickly track north along the Florida coast this weekend. Debby will be moving into a region with deep warm water temperatures as well and is on track to strengthen to a Category one hurricane before making landfall late Sunday night or early Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane along the Big Bend region of Florida. The state could experience heavy flooding rains, tropical storm to hurricane force winds and a storm surge of 2 to 7 feet over the next two days. Once Debby makes landfall, the storm will linger over Florida and Georgia as it slowly moves inland. This could bring heavy flooding rains to areas inland of the coast as well across both states.

August 3 7 a.m.

Tropical Depression 4 is in the process of crossing over Cuba this morning, heading in to the eastern Gulf. The warm waters of the Gulf should quickly turn TD 4 in to Tropical Storm Debby this weekend. Debby is expected to make landfall in Florida early next week, likely in the Big Bend region. Beyond that there are some indications Debby could cross Florida and re-strengthen off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina by midweek.

August 2 10 p.m.

The system is now Tropical Depression Four. It should become a tropical storm Saturday evening once it makes it to the eastern Gulf. It’ll be close to hurricane strength Monday morning when it makes landfall north of Tampa Florida.

August 2 10 a.m.

The NHC has now designated the disturbance over Cuba, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. The latest forecast has it intensifying into a depression as it moves into the southeastern Gulf tomorrow. It is then expected to intensify to at least tropical storm status before making landfall most likely in Florida by the end of the weekend. Tropical storm watches and warnings are now in effect for parts of the Florida coastline. The next name on the Atlantic hurricane list is Debby.

August 2 7 a.m.

A tropical wave, also called Invest 97L is near Hispaniola is expected to slowly organize over the coming days as it tracks to the northwest and enters the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain will continue across the Caribbean through the weekend. Once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, it may strengthen into a tropical storm. Regardless of whether or not a storm forms, heavy rain, that can cause flooding and gusty winds, are expected across Florida beginning Saturday.

August 1 1 p.m.

A tropical wave near Hispaniola now has a high chance of development over the next 7 days. It will enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend where it is likely to develop near the Florida coast.

August 1 7 a.m.

A tropical wave over the Great Antilles will have a medium chance of development over the next 7 days, and it now looks more likely that it will enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico before it spins up.

We are also seeing more signs of the tropics waking up during the month of August.

July 31 7 a.m.

We continue to monitor a tropical wave approaching the Leeward islands for potential development. There’s a medium chance this system could become a tropical depression or a named storm. Formation odds remain at 60%. As of now, models are developing this system north of Hispaniola and Cuba and taking it near the Southeast US coast by the end of the weekend into early next week.

July 30 7 a.m.

There is a 60% risk for tropical development in the western Atlantic later this week into this weekend. The biggest limiting factor for development will be the dry air in the Atlantic basin, followed by potential land interaction with the Caribbean islands.

July 29 7 a.m.

There is a medium (50%) risk for tropical development in the western Atlantic later this week into this weekend. The biggest limiting factor for development will be the dry air in the Atlantic basin, followed by potential land interaction with the Caribbean islands.

July 28 10 a.m.

Odds of development on a tropical wave moving towards the Caribbean are now up to 40%. Some forecast models fade this system out entirely, while others strengthen it and curve it north before making it in to our neck of the woods. We’ll keep our eyes on it through the week ahead, but as of now it is not a high concern to us in Southeast Texas.

July 27 9 a.m.

We’re watching a tropical wave moving towards the Caribbean that has a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days. Some forecast models are strengthening this into a named storm, but there is low confidence in whether or not that will happen, and essentially zero confidence in any eventual specific landfall destination. For now it’s just a potential storm that we’ll be keeping an eye on.

July 25 1 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center has identified a new tropical wave for potential development over the next 7 days. There is no specific threat to Texas from it at this time, but we’ll continue to monitor it for you just in case.

July 25 7 a.m.

No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic over the next 7 days. The Pacific though has a new tropical storm that has formed. This tropical storm is named Bud and will most likely weaken down to a tropical depression by the weekend as it moves west over the ocean. We will have to watch the Atlantic as we head into August as conditions become less hostile for tropical systems.

July 24 7 a.m.

No tropical development is anticipated in the Atlantic over the 7 days but we could see the Atlantic become more active the first week of August especially farther out in the tropical Atlantic region just west of Africa. We also could see Saharan dust move into SE Texas at the end of the work week which could potentially help lower rain chances.

July 23 7 a.m.

No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic over the next 7 days. It does look like the Atlantic could become more active as we head into the first week of August. Saharan dust could make its way back into SE Texas at the end of the week which could aid in slightly lowering our rain chances here in SE Texas.

July 22 7 a.m.

The Atlantic waters remain quiet and no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days. Saharan dust could move in midweek through the end of this week. On the Pacific side, we continue to watch two disturbances moving west that both have low chances of development.

July 21 7 a.m.

The Atlantic Basin has been mostly quiet since Beryl, and that continues currently with no tropical development expected over the next 7 days. Some Saharan Dust could help lower rain chances towards the end of this week, and we’ll watch for the tropics to pick up steam in August.

July 20 7 a.m.

All is quiet in the tropics! No development is expected over the next week. We’ll keep a close eye on things, especially as there are some early indications that things could be heating up in the Caribbean in early August.

July 19 7 a.m.

Our stretch of “no tropical development expected over the next 7 days” lives on! While the Atlantic Basin is nice and quiet for now, there are signs that early August could see activity ramp back up.

July 18 7 a.m.

Luckily, we are quiet in the Atlantic due to elevated wind shear and dry air. Saharan Dust is draped across a good portion of the tropics and could move back here into SE Texas early next week. We are still watching two disturbances in the Pacific that both have low chances of development.

July 17 7 a.m.

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet as Saharan dust content and wind shear remains high across the Atlantic. We could see this Saharan dust return to SE Texas early next week. In the Pacific, there are two disturbances moving west that have low chances of development.

July 16 7 a.m.

The tropics remain quiet. There still is plenty of Saharan dust in the Atlantic but it looks to stay out of Texas through this week. We could see it move back into Texas early next week.

July 15 7 a.m.

The tropics are coming in quiet right now a week after Beryl made landfall in SE Texas. No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic over the next 7 days. We are seeing low concentrations of Saharan Dust today but we aren’t expecting any major issues. We’ll watch our air quality just in case.

July 14 10 a.m.

The tropics remain nice and quiet, with no development expected over the next week in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic. If you notice a bit of haze in the sky it’s likely Saharan dust from Africa, but the concentration of the dust looks low enough to not cause any major problems.

July 13 10 a.m.

“No tropical development expected over the next 7 days”. That’s the message from the National Hurricane Center this morning, a welcome break while Houstonians work to recover from Beryl. We are monitoring for some Saharan dust to move in to Southeast Texas early next week.

July 12 7 a.m.

We are still staying mostly quiet in the Atlantic. We do have a disturbance off the southeast coast of the United States but it is not expected to develop before it moves onto land later this evening. We could see some Saharan dust move into SE Texas this weekend into early next week which could add a slight haze to the sky.

July 11 7 a.m.

We are coming in mostly quiet in the Atlantic with just one disturbance off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. This disturbance only has a 10% chance of development and it should move into the southeastern US this weekend. We also have Saharan dust moving back towards Texas. It should move in this weekend which may add a light haze to the sky.

July 10 7 am

Beryl continues to weaken as it moves towards the northeast United States bringing heavy rain and the potential for severe weather for them. There also is an area of low pressure off the coast of the southeastern United States. This only has a 10% chance of development and should move onto land by this weekend.

July 9

Beryl, now a tropical depression will bring heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes.

Otherwise, the tropical Atlantic is quiet with no organized systems expected to develop over the next week. The eastern Pacific will remain quiet as well.

July 8 Update 4 p.m.

Beryl is now 110 miles north of Houston and finally moving out of Southeast Texas. Beryl still retains it’s tropical storm strength with winds of 45 mph and gusts up 60 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect for portions of Southeast Texas as wind gusts could till reach up to 50 mph before sunset. Those weather alerts will be allowed to expire alter Monday night.

As for the rest of the tropical, there’s nothing else the ABC13 Weather Team is monitoring at this moment.

July 8 Update 1 p.m.

Beryl is still a tropical storm centered over Walker County with winds of 60 mph and gusts of hurricane-force strength of 90 mph. The central pressure has started to increase and the eye of Beryl is a little less organized than it was at landfall. Beryl has picked up speed too, now moving north/northeast at 14 mph and could be out of Southeast Texas by 5 p.m. Monday.

Additionally, the Tropical Storm Warnings for Austin, Colorado, Wharton, Matagorda, Calhoun, Brazoria and Fort Bend counties have been allowed to expire. The Storm Surge Warning for Matagorda Bay, Brazoria and Matagorda counties have also been allowed to expire.

July 8 Update 10:00 a.m.

Beryl is now a tropical storm with the sustained winds weakening slightly. Beryl is still very powerful with sustained winds of 70 mph and gusts up to 90 mph. Beryl is expected to continue to gradually weaken throughout the day Monday as it slowly tracks north across the region. Beryl will then be out of Southeast Texas by late Monday night.

Tropical storm force to hurricane force winds are still expected through Monday afternoon as well as torrential tropical rains that will exacerbate flooding concerns as well.

July 8 Update 9:00 a.m.

Beryl is retaining it’s hurricane strength as the storm moves inland Monday morning. Beryl is bringing life-threatening flash flooding, tropical storm to hurricane force winds and the potential for tornadoes Monday morning. A life-threatening storm surge is also occurring in Galveston Bay. A shelter-in-place is advised for everyone across Southeast Texas Monday as Beryl slowly tracks northward across the region.

Several areas bayous, rivers and creeks across Harris County are also rising out of their banks. Since the storm is expected to move out by Monday evening, the kind of flooding expected is not equivalent to that of Havery, but major street and area flooding is ongoing and expected for the entire day Monday and could linger into the day Tuesday.

July 8 Update 6:00 a.m.

Beryl is gradually lifting through Southeast Texas early this morning, bringing wind gusts of 80+mph to our coastal communities and 60+mph winds through the Houston area. A Tornado Watch and Flood Watch remains in effect for most of Southeast Texas. Flooding rains and damaging winds will continue through the morning and into the afternoon before gradually lifting north in the late afternoon and early evening.

July 8 Update 4:30 a.m.

Beryl has officially made landfall in Matagorda County as a Cat 1 hurricane. Flooding rains and hurricane force wind gusts continue. A Tornado Watch continues for most of Southeast Texas.

July 8 Update 2 a.m.

Beryl’s center of circulation remains just offshore of Matagorda County, and is currently a Cat 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80mph. Conditions are already rapidly deteriorating farther inland including around the Houston area, and will continue to worsen through the morning. Along with the flooding winds and damaging rain, a Tornado watch is in effect until 10 a.m. for Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, Liberty, Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties.

July 7 Update 11 p.m.

Based on doppler radar estimates and reports from hurricane hunters, Beryl’s sustained winds have increased to 75 mph and is now a Category one hurricane. Beryl is expected to make landfall now as a Category one storm east of Matagorda Bay in Matagorda County early Monday morning.

Additionally, a Tornado watch is in effect until 10 a.m. for Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, Liberty, Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties. Thunderstorms in the outer bands of Beryl could be strong enough to produce quick tornadoes as they move inland.

July 7 Update 10 p.m.

Beryl is still a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph but gusts have now increased to 85 mph. And in the latest form the National Hurricane Center, Beryl is now expected to make landfall as a tropical storm east of Matagorda Bay and into central Matagorda County. However, Beryl is still forecast to reach hurricane strength over Matagorda and Wharton counties when sustained winds reach 75 mph around 7 a.m. Monday morning. Then Beryl will take more of a northerly turn, which put much of Harris County and Houston at risk for seeing tropical storm to hurricane force gusts. Power outages are expected. Beryl will then weaken to a tropical storm as it passes over Southeast Texas and arrives close of Lufkin Monday evening.

Galveston Island is now under a Hurricane Warning as well.

July 7 Update 7 p.m.

Beryl is nearing hurricane strength now with winds of 70 mph and gusts of 75 mph. The central pressure has dropped slightly too with a more visible eye and eyewall now on satellite and radar imagery. Beryl is still on track to make landfall near Matagorda Bay as a Category one hurricane, likely reaching that hurricane strength by 1 a.m. Monday.

July 7 Update 4 p.m.

Beryl currently remains as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. It is expected to make landfall near or just east of Matagorda Bay/Matagorda County as at least a Cat. 1 hurricane Monday morning between 2-4 am. Storm surge up to 7′ will be possible from Matagorda Bay to San Luis Pass. Up to 6′ possible in Galveston, Galveston Bay, up to High Island. Rainfall totals near or east of the path should come in around 5-10″ with isolated spots seeing closer to 15.” Luckily, Beryl looks to move quickly making its way out of SE Texas by late Monday into early Tuesday.

July 7 Update 1 p.m.

Beryl is retaining its tropical storm strength this afternoon with winds of 65 mph, gusts up to 75 mph and a central pressure of 992 mb. Beryl is still on track to make landfall early Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph.

A new additional to the weather alerts this afternoon, a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for coastal Galveston County including Galveston, Jamaica Beach and the west end of the island. Also, now all of Brazoria and Wharton County are now under a Hurricane Warning.

The first rain bands from Beryl have also started to move through Southeast Texas Sunday afternoon, the first of several expected throughout the day and into Monday. Heavy downpours, lightning, thunder and a quick tornado can’t be ruled out as these come onshore. Along the coast, water levels in Galveston Bay have already risen a foot, close to two feet near the San Luis Pass. The storm surge will continue to push into coastal communities tonight and throughout Monday. There are also signs now that the surge could reach up to 6 feet in parts of Galveston Bay and along Galveston Island.

July 7 Update 10 a.m.

Two major updates as of 10 a.m., first off, Beryl is officially strengthening. While still currently a Tropical Storm, Beryl has increased to 65mph winds, and is expected to become a Cat 1 hurricane later today. The National Hurricane Center explicitly mentioned the potential for a Cat 2 storm before landfall, so we have the potential to see a stronger storm than the official forecast. The second important update is that our Tropical Storm Warning has been expanded throughout all of Southeast Texas, even our northern-most counties.

July 7 Update 7 a.m.

Beryl is going to be a high impact weather event across Southeast Texas. Currently Beryl remains at Tropical Storm strength this morning, but is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall near Matagorda Bay early Monday morning. Jackson, Matagorda, and coastal Brazoria counties are under a Hurricane Warning. Colorado, Austin, Waller, Harris, Chambers, Fort Bend, and Wharton Counties are under a Tropical Storm Warning. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches of rain will be common in the path of the storm, with isolated amounts of 15+ inches. Storm surge will reach between 4-6 feet along our local waterways, highest around Matagorda Bay.

Through Sunday morning we’re looking at a few spotty showers, but conditions will gradually deteriorate through today and late tonight as outer bands of Beryl move through. Those outer bands have the potential to put down heavy rain and occasional tornadoes. The main event begins early Monday morning, with Beryl expected to make landfall between 3-6 a.m. Monday, with damaging wind, flooding rains, dangerous storm surge along the coast, and potential tornadoes.

July 6 Update 10 p.m.

Not much has changed in tonight’s update. Beryl is still a tropical storm with winds of 60 mph and gusts of 70 mph. One update is that Beryl’s central pressure dropped from 997 to 993 mb, a small sign that the storm is organized and slowly strengthening once again over the warm Gulf waters.

There are some important updates to the weather alerts. All of Harris, Fort Bend, Waller and Austin are now under a Tropical Storm Warning. This is an expansion of the previous warned area along the coast. Tropical storm-force gusts between 45 to 55 mph are possible with some wind gusts reaching up to 80 mph at times over the next 36 hours.

July 6 Update 7 p.m.

Beryl remains at tropical storm, retaining its strength in the latest update. Beryl will continue to track northwest towards the Texas coast tonight and throughout the day Sunay. Sunday, Beryl is expected to move into a region that will have more favorable conditions for development, thus strengthening to a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph before making landfall near Matagorda Bay early Monday morning. Monday Beryl will continue to slowly push inland, potentially swirling over Southeast Texas in the evening hours as a tropical storm. Tuesday the storm will begin to lift into the northern part of the state, eventually making it’s way into Arkansas and the Ohio River Valley midweek.

Those across Southeast Texas should anticipate tropical storm-like impacts beginning as early as Sunday afternoon with conditions greatly deteriorating Sunday night and into Monday morning. Then Monday is an ABC13 Weather Alert Day as tropical storm force winds, heavy rains and tornadoes are all possible across Southeast Texas. Coastal communities will have those threats plus the inundation of the storm surge to worry about Monday.

One change to the weather alerts from the 4 p.m. update is that a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Galveston Bay and along Chambers County.

July 6 Update 4 p.m.

In the latest update of Beryl’s track, landfall continues to be slightly shifted north along the Texas coast. Beryl is still expected to make landfall Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph near Matagorda Bay. With this increasing confidence in when and where Beryl will make landfall, there have been updates to the tropical weather alerts for portions of Southeast Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for coastal Matagorda and Brazoria counties with Storm Surge Watches continuing for portions of Galveston, Harris and Chambers counties. A storm surge upwards of 6 feet is possible along this portion of the Texas coast with conditions deteriorating Sunday evening. Storm surge is expected to being late Sunday and last all day Monday.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Matagorda County. A Tropical Storm warning is now in effect for Brazoria, Colorado, Wharton, Galveston, southeastern Harris, southern Liberty and Chambers counties. Hurricane to tropical storm force winds, respectively, are expected in the area with a warning. These conditions will begin as early as Sunday evening and last through Monday afternoon.

Additionally, significant flash flooding is possible along and east of Beryl’s track. As mentioned earlier, Flood Watches have been issued for most of Southeast Texas for Sunday evening through Tuesday morning.

July 6 Update 1 p.m.

Beryl continues to track northwest across the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm with winds of 60 mph and gusts up to 70 mph. Beryl’s central pressure hasn’t changed since the last update this morning. The storm is currently not in the most favorable environment to strengthen, but that is expected to change by tomorrow.

Beryl is still on track to make landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay early Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph. Leading up to landfall, tropical storm to hurricane force winds will begin to pick up along the Texas coast and move inland Monday. rip currents and high tides could also begin to impact the Texas coast as early as Sunday afternoon. Storm Surge Watches continue from High Island to Brownsville. Galveston Bay could see a surge of 2 to 4 feet above ground level with 3 to 5 feet closer to Matagorda Bay.

The biggest threat for most of Southeast Texas is going to be the rain. Between Sunday and Wednesday, rain totals could range between 8 to 12 inches east of I-45 with some of the heaviest rain expected across Hill Country south towards the coast. Houston could see between 8 to 10 inches of rainfall during that time. Then east of I-45 there will likely be a sharp cutoff from a 6 to 8 ich range with totals much less of that east of the cutoff line. There is also the threat of tornadoes while Beryl makes landfall.

As of 3 p.m. Saturday, A Flood Watch has been issued for much of Southeast Texas for Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. Excessive rainfall and runoff from Beryl could flood rivers, creeks, streams and flood-prone areas. 5 to 10 inches of rain, possibly more in spots, is expected to fall within the watched area.

July 6 Update 10:00 a.m.

As of 10 a.m. Tropical Storm Beryl is beginning to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Beryl currently has a pressure of 997mb with max wind speeds of 60mph. The center of the NHC forecast cone is focused in on Matagorda Bay, though it’s important to note the average margin of error from the National Hurricane Center 48 hours out is about 70 miles, so the eventual landfall location is not set in stone. The worst of the weather in Southeast Texas will be felt Monday as the storm makes landfall, and an ABC13 Weather Alert Day has been issued for Monday and Tuesday.

A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch remains in effect from High Island down to the Texas/Mexico border. Peak storm surge along our local coastlines could reach 5 feet.

Heavy rains will be an issue even for inland locations, with most picking up less than 6 inches of rain, but those in the direct path of the storm could see upwards of 8-10 inches of rain. The worst of the flooding issues and the strongest winds will likely stay west of I-45, though tropical storm force winds are possible in the city of Houston.

July 6 Update 6:00 a.m.

A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch remains in effect from High Island down to the Texas/Mexico border. The center of the NHC forecast cone is focused in on Matagorda Bay, though the east side of the cone includes parts of Galveston Island, and there are some forecast models pulling the storm east of the Matagorda Bay center-line. The worst of the weather in Southeast Texas will be felt Monday as the storm makes landfall, and an ABC13 Weather Alert Day has been issued for Monday and Tuesday.

July 5 Update 10:00 p.m.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended to San Luis Pass and the Storm Surge Watch has been extended to High Island as the forecast cone for Beryl is now centered on Matagorda Bay. We are still anticipating a hurricane landfall Monday morning with high impacts to Southeast Texas. While Beryl is a struggling tropical storm now, it is expected to re-strengthen and become a hurricane again before landfall in Texas.

July 5 Update 7:00 p.m.

Beryl has entered the Gulf of Mexico a little farther north than expected this evening. This will likely result in more adjustments to the track and where it is most likely expected to make landfall along the Texas coast. Newer computer model data coming in that has caught on to the northward shift now shows Beryl making landfall between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay Monday morning. A new forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center will be out by 10 p.m.

July 5 Update 4:00 p.m.

A Hurricane and Storm Surge Watch are now in effect along the Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent, Texas near the border of Matagorda and Brazoria Counties. Up to 5 feet of storm surge is expected at this time. Landfall is expected to occur along the middle Texas coast on Monday with Beryl strengthening toward Category 2 intensity. Note that the exact landfall point is still uncertain at this time, and the track could shift farther east putting more of Southeast Texas at risk of hurricane winds and storm surge flooding. Regardless, this is looking like a high impact storm for Southeast Texas, and we need to be prepared for the impacts of this hurricane to arrive as early as Sunday night and continue through Monday. Because we believe the brunt of the impacts will be felt on Monday, that is now an ABC13 Weather Alert Day.

July 5 Update 1:00 p.m.

Beryl is now a tropical storm over Mexico with 70 mph winds after making landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. It is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico later today. Landfall along the Texas coast is expected at this point to occur Monday. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the future of the track and intensity. The next forecast update for the track and intensity will arrive by 4 p.m.

July 5 Update 4:00 a.m.

Hurricane Beryl is a cat 2 storm as it makes landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula this morning. This will bring significant impacts to many highly populated and often-traveled locations such as Cancun and Cozumel. Beyond the Yucatan, a weakened Beryl emerge in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday, regaining strength with warm water and low wind shear. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has an eventual landfall on Monday morning anywhere from northern Mexico to Corpus Christi. Forecast models continue to favor the northern edge of the track, making the most likely landfall location somewhere from Brownsville to Corpus Christi.

Our coastal impacts will begin as early as Sunday, will elevated tides and rip currents. Tropical rains will push into Southeast Texas early next week, with many locations picking up between 3-5 inches of rain between Monday and Thursday. Our risk of seeing hurricane force winds is low, and we will continue to monitor the latest forecast modeling as the storm approaches.

July 4 Update 8:30 p.m.

The Hurricane Hunters have confirmed that Beryl is now a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds as it makes its final approach to the Yucatan peninsula. We’ll have a new track forecast from the National Hurricane Center by 10 p.m.

July 4 Update 8 p.m.

The Hurricane Hunters have confirmed that Beryl is indeed strengthening again on its approach to the Yucatan peninsula. We’ll have a new track forecast from the National Hurricane Center by 10 p.m.

July 4 Update 4 p.m.

Satellite imagery indicates Beryl may have stopped its weakening trend and even started to regain intensity. The National Hurricane shows the cone still aimed near the Texas/Mexico border with a northward push into Texas after landfall. This track will bring a storm surge to the Texas coastline, hurricane and tropical storm force winds to a portion of the coastline, and heavy rainfall along and right of the path. An increased risk of rip currents will reach our coastline starting Sunday. We are putting you on an ABC13 Weather Watch from Monday through Thursday with the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding increasing as Beryl slows down and pushes northward. Make sure you stay weather aware through the holiday weekend as we get a better handle on the details.

July 4 Update 10 a.m.

Beryl continues to slowly weaken but is still a powerful Category 3 hurricane. It should impact the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 2 hurricane late tonight into Friday. It should move into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night as a tropical storm and then should continue to move northwest towards northern Mexico/southern Texas possibly intensifying back into a hurricane. It is still unclear exactly where Beryl will go so we can’t rule out impacts here in Southeast Texas. Make sure you stay weather aware through the weekend.

July 4 Update 7 a.m.

Beryl weakened overnight after impacting Jamaica and entering an area of higher wind shear late Wednesday. Beryl is now a Category 3 storm with winds of 120 mph and gusts of 150 mph. Still, Beryl is a major hurricane and has been for now 5 days in a row. The latest track has Beryl making landfall along the Yucatan early Friday morning south of Cozumel as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. Beryl will weaken more to a tropical storm as it tracks over the Yucatan Peninsula before making its way into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. From there, Beryl will be a tropical storm but could strengthen again to a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall along the north Mexico or south Texas coast near Monday.

Currently landfall along the gulf coast is just south of Brownsville in northern Mexico. However, there are some signs that landfall could shift farther north into the Texas coast, which is something we’re closely watching.

Southeast Texas is not out of the woods just yet though. With the current track of the storm, Houston could be impacted by tropical downpours early next week. Coastal communities might even have higher tides too. Each of these impacts though are the bare minimum. If Bery’s track shifts farther north for a landfall along the Texas Coast, then our impacts grow too.

Elsewhere in the tropics, the tropical wave behind Beryl near the Lesser Antilles has a 20 percent chance of developing over the next 7 days as it makes it ways across the Caribbean behind Beryl.

July 3 Update 10 p.m.

It’s the storm that just won’t weaken. Beryl is still a Category 4 storm. It’s heading for the Cayman Islands Thursday, and to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. The latest track still has landfall near Brownsville late Sunday or Sunday night. It still could turn farther north and affect southeast Texas. Stay tuned!

July 3 Update 7 p.m.

Beryl’s sustained winds have weakened to 130 mph but it’s still a Category 4 hurricane. Its center is 100 miles west of Kingston Jamaica and it’s moving west at 20 mph.

July 3 Update 6 p.m.

The northern eyewall of Category 4 Hurricane Beryl is pounding Jamaica at this hour. A pocket of high wind shear west of the storm should weaken it some as it passes south of the Cayman Islands on Thursday. The storm will make it to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, most likely as a Category 2 storm. Models have come into better agreement that Beryl will strike either northern Mexico or south Texas late this weekend. A turn towards southeast Texas is not likely at this time but not impossible either. Either way, a lot of Beryl’s moisture, and moisture from a tropical wave behind it will make it to the area by the middle of next week. Heavy tropical rains will be possible then.

July 3 Update 1 p.m.

The latest update from the NHC has shown a slight weakening in Beryl but it is still a strong Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. It will continue to impact Jamaica and will bring impacts to the Cayman Islands tonight. Then it looks like Beryl will move west into the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday night into Friday before emerging into the Gulf by Friday night into early Saturday. There is still a big model spread on where this will go. A lot of this will be due to land interactions and also what is happening in the upper atmosphere. Mexico and parts of the Texas coastline are in the far ranges of the cone of uncertainty.

July 3 Update 10 a.m.

Beryl shown signs of weakening this morning but still holding onto its Cat 4 intensity with 145 mph winds. The center should move near or just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 hours. Then it should move to the Yucatan Peninsula near Cat. 2 strength at the end of the week. It should emerge over the Gulf by Friday evening most likely as a tropical storm, but it could intensify back into a hurricane depending on which path it takes. There is a still a sizeable spread on where this could go once it gets into the Gulf with models going as far north as into parts of the Texas coast or as far south as the Mexico Coast. Matagorda Bay is now included within the northern side of this forecast cone. At this time, just make sure you stay aware with what’s happening this week with Beryl and we should get more clarity into its direction today as it interacts with Jamaica.

July 3 Update 7 a.m.

Hurricane Beryl is still a power, Category 4 hurricane Wednesday morning with winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. There are a few important things to note in the morning update from the National Hurricane Center. To start, Beryl has not weakened that much overnight even when impacted by wind shear, a factor that typically weakens tropical systems. The other updates are with the latest track of the storm.

First, Beryl might not make a direct hit with Jamaica, though the island will still feel the brunt of hurricane-force winds today. If the storm stays south of the island, the storm might not weaken as much as initially expected. This means the storm could stay a major hurricane, either a Category 3 or 4, as it racks west towards the Yucatan Peninsula this week. Then Beryl could make landfall along the Yucatan as either a Category 2 or even 3 hurricane depending on how quickly it moves and if wind shear across the Caribbean will weaken the storm.

Finally, the hurricane center now has Beryl strengthening once again when it moves into the Bay of Campeche. Beryl will likely weaken while over land in the Yucatan to a tropical storm, but then could strengthen to a Category one hurricane as it makes its northern turn towards the Mexican and Texas Coast this weekend. Southeast Texas specifically is still not within the cone of uncertainty, but we need to stay alert as there is growing consistency that Beryl will take that northerly jog once it’s in the Gulf and could intensify too.

July 2 Update 7 p.m.

Hurricane Beryl remains a Category 4 hurricane with estimated winds of 150 mph, but the Hurricane Hunters did just sample higher winds that indicate it could still be a Category 5 storm. A new track forecast and intensity estimate from the National Hurricane Center comes out at 10 p.m.

July 2 Update 4 p.m.

Hurricane Beryl remains near Category 5 intensity, but wind shear is impacting the storm, which should cause the intensity to decrease some on its approach to Jamaica. That said, it is still predicted to be a major hurricane when it passes near or over Jamaica tomorrow. With the new forecast track, more of South Texas is now included in the five-day forecast cone for Sunday. We’ll have a clearer picture on the impacts to Texas once we see how the storm interacts with Jamaica tomorrow. If Beryl weakens considerably, the impacts to Texas will be lower. If Beryl does not weaken much, the impacts to Texas will likely be greater early next week. Any impacts in Southeast Texas would likely occur in the Sunday through Tuesday window.

July 2 Update 1 p.m.

Hurricane Beryl now has estimated winds of 155 mph with gusts up to 200 mph. This make Beryl a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Wind shear is starting to impact the hurricane, but it remains to be seen how much the wind speeds will drop before it reaches Jamaica. It will likely be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane when it impacts Jamaica tomorrow. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

July 2 Update 10 a.m.

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast is showing South Texas in Beryl’s forecast cone of uncertainty for this coming Sunday. So, the chances are going up that Texas will have some type of impact from Beryl between Sunday and Tuesday of next week, but the degree and extend of those impacts are still to be determined. We may get a clearer outlook on Texas impacts as soon as Wednesday depending on what happens as Beryl passes by or over Jamaica. There is a Hurricane Warning in effect for Jamaica and a Hurricane Watch in effect for the southern border of Haiti as well as the Cayman Islands.

July 2 Update

Hurricane Beryl remains a powerful and dangerous storm as it moves westward across the Caribbean as a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 165 mph. Southern Hispaniola and Jamaica will be the next to experience heavy rain, strong winds and life-threatening storm surge are likely. Landfall over the Yucatan peninsula is likely Thursday night with the storm emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico later Friday. It’s too soon to say whether or not Texas will be impacted by the hurricane, but a pathway toward Texas remains open at this time. If we’re to be impacted by Beryl, it would likely be in the Sunday through Tuesday window early next week.

July 1 Update 10:45 p.m.

NOAA Hurricane Hunters flew into Beryl this evening and found a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. It’s moving west-northwest at 22 mph and should make it to Jamaica on Wednesday as a major Category 3 storm.

Tropical Storm Chris moved onto land in Mexico this morning and has weakened considerably. Beryl also made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane this morning around 10:10 am in the Windward Islands bringing 150 mph sustained winds. Beryl is expected to weaken a bit as it moves northwest through the Caribbean as it encounters more wind shear. It is expected to impact Jamaica by Wednesday and the Yucatan Peninsula by the end of the work week. We should know a lot more about where this system will go once we see how it interacts with Jamaica. IF it moves into the southern Gulf, it wouldn’t do so until this weekend.

July 1 Update

Hurricane Beryl re-strengthens to a Category 4 hurricane after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. This still dangerous and powerful storm will bring life-threatening flooding rain along with strong, damaging winds and coastal flooding to the majority of Caribbean Islands as it tracks west-northwest this week. Beryl is forecast to lose wind intensity later in the week over the western Caribbean as it encounters higher wind shear. It could make landfall over the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday. From there, still too much uncertainy as to where it will track next.

Tropical Storm Chris made landfall over eastern Mexico Monday morning. It is now a tropical depression and will continue to bring heavy rainfall inland.

A tropical wave about 1000 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands has a medium risk for development as it tracks west in the coming days. This may be a tropical depression later this week or Tropical Storm Debby.

June 30th 10 p.m. Update

Beryl continues to be a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph and peak wind gusts of 160 mph. The eye of Beryl is 10 nautical miles wide and even has mesovorticies within, both signs of a healthy and well-formed storm. Beryl will retain it’s Category 4 strength as it makes landfall along the Windward Idlands Monday, leading to life-threatening flooding and potentially catastrophic wind damage. As for it’s future track, Beryl is expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches Jamaica mid-week and then could weaken slightly to either a Category one or two storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula Friday. Another landfall near Cozumel is possible Friday. Beyond that, it’s difficult to place where this hurricane will be after Friday. the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center now includes the Bay of Campeche, but there’s still too much uncertainty with the system’s potential track as it would be in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. In other words, it’s still too early to tell if Beryl will pose a threat to the Texas coast or Houston next weekend. In the meantime, it’s best to begin thinking about an travels plans you might have around the Fourth of July and thereafter, plus what you might need to do locally in Houston if a storm was headed this way.

Behind Beryl, the other tropical wave in it’s wake still has a 70% chance of forming over the next 7 days.

Additionally, we now have Tropical Storm Chris in the Bay of Campeche. This will be another short-lived system as it’s expected to move into Mexico Monday. The main concern is the heavy rains that could lead to flooding and mudslides in Mexico. Chris poses no threat to the Texas coast of Houston.

June 30th 10 a.m. Update

Hurricane Beryl is already in the record books, reaching Cat 4 strength late Sunday morning. It becomes the first June hurricane on record to reach Cat 4 strength, a feat made possible by record warm waters. The storm will impact the Windward Islands Monday as a Cat 4 storm, and continue west through the Caribbean. By midweek the storm will be near Jamaica as a major hurricane, and most forecast models bring the storm to the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. Anyone with travel plans to the Yucatan (including Cozumel, Cancun, Playa Del Carmen, and Tulum) should monitor the weather closely. Beyond that point models are split on the eventual path, but it is possible the storm can sweep across the Yucatan and move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Any specific landfall projections beyond that point would be pure speculation, but we’ll watch it closely as models come in to better agreement.

Behind Beryl is another potential storm with a 70% chance of developing, likely to become “Chris” in the coming days.

Closer to home in the Southwest Gulf is another area of potential development with 50% development odds, though any impacts from that system will stay well south of our area.

June 29 4 p.m. Update

Beryl has strengthened to a Category one hurricane Saturday afternoon with winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 992 millibars. Beryl will continue to intensify through the weekend before making landfall along the Windward islands in the eastern Caribbean Monday as a potentially major hurricane of Category three strength. Destructive hurricane force winds and life-threatening flash flooding are possibility for those islands, thus Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for islands like Grenada, Barbados and St. Vincent.

From there the hurricane will continue to track west through the Caribbean and towards the Yucatan Peninsula by the end next week. From there the future path of Beryl is still uncertain. Beryl could potentially track into the Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche into the first weekend of July, but it is still too early to tell if this storm will pose any threat to the Texas coast.

There are also two other areas for potential tropical development in the coming days, and one could become the next named storm Chris. Behind Beryl there is another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has a 70 percent chance of forming over the next 7 days. And then the area to watch in the Bay of Campeche has a medium, 50/50 chance of becoming a named storm before the circulation would move into Mexico next week.

June 29 Update

Tropical Storm Beryl is poised to become the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season by the end of the day, and is forecast to reach Cat 3 “major” hurricane status as it enters the Caribbean early next week. Anyone with travel plans in the Caribbean should stay weather-aware through the week ahead. While models in the short term are in fairly good agreement about Beryl’s path into the Caribbean, the long-term outlook remains less certain. At this point, it is unknown if the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico or continue west into Central America.

Another tropical wave closer to home in the southwest Gulf has a 40% chance of development but will move into Mexico and will not impact Southeast Texas in any way.

June 28 10 p.m. Update

Tropical Depression Two is now Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical watches will more than likely be issued for the Windward Islands on Saturday.

June 28 4 p.m. Update

Tropical Depression Two has formed over the central Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center predicts it will be a Category 2 hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean Sea on Monday. Anyone with plans to vacation in the Caribbean next week should pay close attention to the forecast in the days ahead. It is too soon at this time to know if it will ever impact the Gulf of Mexico, much less Texas, but if it ever were to impact Texas, it would likely be in the July 7th – July 9th window. We’ll keep you posted on its every move in the days ahead.

June 28

The tropics are looking more like late August than late June, with 3 areas of potential development we are currently monitoring. The greatest risk of development comes from Tropical Wave 95-L, which is in the open Atlantic and now has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression or named storm. It is likely to become “Beryl” over the next few days, and could end up being our first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season as it moves in to the Caribbean next week. Beyond that, models are showing a wide spread on where the storm could eventually head.

Close behind 95-L is another tropical wave following in its wake, though the odds for development on that system are at just 20%.

Lastly, closest to home is 94-L, which will be moving into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. That system will gradually turn into Mexico and will not directly impact Southeast Texas.

June 27 Afternoon Update

Tropical Wave 95-L in the open Atlantic is becoming more organized today. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next two days and an 80% chance of doing the same over the next week. Hurricane Hunters are now scheduled to investigate it starting on Sunday. It poses no immediate threat to Texas at this time, but it bears watching for now.

June 27 Update

The NHC has increased development odds for a system in the open Atlantic to 70%. It will likely become our next named storm, and could become the first hurricane of the 2024 hurricane season. This potential storm is too far away to have any real specifics on its eventual location, so for now it’s just a storm that we’ll be watching closely.

Another area of potential development in the southern Gulf now has a 30% chance of development, but the rain and general impact of that storm will stay well south of the Houston area in Central America.

June 26 Afternoon Update

The National Hurricane Center now says the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has a 40% chance of developing over the next 7 days. The environment it will pass through in the days ahead will allow the wave to organize more, and many of our computer models are now indicating this system could be come the first hurricane of the season as it nears the Caribbean Sea.

June 26 Update

There continue to be two waves of potential tropical development in the Atlantic. One is in the southern Caribbean and has a 20% chance of formation over the next seven days. That’s when this wave is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. There is another wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa that currently in the eastern Atlantic that has a 30% chance of developing over the next seven days. The main story in the tropics is Saharan Dust, where two plumes could make it to the Texas Coast and Gulf of Mexico this weekend and next week. Saharan Dust can help limit tropical storms of hurricanes from forming.

June 25 Evening Update

The National Hurricane Center is now giving a new tropical wave near the coast of Africa a 20% chance of development over the next seven days. It is of no immediate concern to Texas at this time, and we’ve got plenty of time to watch it over the next two weeks.

June 25

We are watching two features in the tropics. First, is a Saharan dust cloud that brings us a hazy gray sky by the weekend, and second is a tropical wave on the southern edge of that dust cloud that could develop once it gets into the western Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Formation odds during the next 7 days is 20%.

June 24 1 p.m. Update

While tropical development will be suppressed by a large cloud of Saharan dust, there is still a small chance a tropical wave could develop into something more on the fringes of that dust cloud. The National Hurricane Center is now giving a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Sea a low chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm as it crosses the Western Caribbean and/or Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

June 24

The tropical low we’ve been monitoring over northeast Mexico has pushed inland and will remain a heavy rainmaker over the next day or two. Tropical development is not expected elsewhere in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific over the next week. However, a large dust cloud over the Caribbean will make its way into the Gulf and could move into southeast Texas over the weekend. Although concentrations of the dust are not particularly heavy at this time, we’ll need to monitor any air quality issues it could cause.

You may notice the sky appear “milkier” or “hazy gray” which could make sunrises and sunsets more colorful. Saharan dust will also limit thunderstorm development.

June 23

Our potential tropical system in the western Gulf is down to a 40% chance of development over the next 2 days, and is quickly running out of time to get it’s act together over water before it moves into Mexico and dissipates. Regardless of whether this becomes a named system or not, the impact to us in Southeast Texas is slim-to-none, as this low pressure has a much tighter wind field that doesn’t extend as far in to Texas as Alberto did.

June 22

We’re still seeing some impacts from Alberto with elevated coastal flooding and a high rip current risk at our local beaches.

We are also monitoring another low in the southern Gulf that looks to follow in Albert’s footsteps. While this system is similar to Alberto in many ways, including an eventual path into Mexico, it is a much smaller system, so the impacts here in Southeast Texas will be negligible.

June 21

We continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather that will move into the Bay of Campeche this weekend into next week. Another tropical low could spin up in nearly the same spot Alberto did. Right now there is a 60% chance of development over the next 7 days, but it could send more rain toward Texas, especially South Texas.

There is also another area off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas we’re monitoring for development too. It has a 50% chance of development this weekend.

June 20

Alberto made landfall near Tampico, Mexico Thursday morning and is now a tropical depression over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Alberto’s winds, rains and enhanced tides extend well north of the center and will continue to have impacts on southeast Texas coastal communities until Thursday evening.

We will also be watching the Bay of Campeche this weekend into next week as another tropical low spins up in nearly the same spot Alberto did. Right now there is a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days, but it could send more rain toward Texas, especially South Texas. There is also another area off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas we’re monitoring for development too.

June 19 10 a.m.

Potential Storm One is now classified as Tropical Storm Alberto. The NHC has been able to find a well defined center of circulation which is why it is now getting classified as a tropical storm. It is expected to jog west making landfall in Mexico late tonight into Thursday morning as a tropical storm. The naming of this storm does not change the impacts we are feeling here in Southeast Texas. We are still going to be looking at rainbands moving through parts of SE Texas today and coastal flooding caused by the large wind field generated by Alberto.

This weekend we’ll also be watching as another tropical low could try to spin up again over the Bay of Campeche. Right now, it looks like that disturbance would mainly stay in the southern Gulf but it could send moisture our way early next week resulting in a chance for rain for SE Texas.

June 19 7 a.m.

Potential Storm One still has not organized enough to be designated a tropical storm as it is crossing the Bay of Campeche, and time is running out for it to do so before making a landfall along the northeast coast of Mexico late Wednesday night. Regardless of whether it becomes Alberto or not, the storm will bring wind and heavy rain in northeastern Mexico and up into Texas.

We are also monitoring the same area again for this weekend, as the NHC has designated a low chance for a second system to try to organize in that area.

There is also still a low chance for development north of the Bahamas over the next few days, with the risk extending to the Southeast U.S. coast.

June 18

A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche has been designated as Potential Storm One. It is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Alberto by Wednesday. It is currently heading north but should make a westerly turn toward Mexico on Wednesday. It is expected to make landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm Thursday morning. This is a very large system so we could potentially see tropical storm force winds as far north as Port O’ Connor. Our main impact here in Southeast Texas will be from the moisture getting pushed this way around this system, leading to rounds of heavy rainfall. Street flooding and coastal tide flooding are the biggest concerns.

June 17 4 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing forecasts for Potential Storm One in the southwest Gulf. It is predicted to become Tropical Storm Alberto. This is an unusually large tropical circulation, so even with the center going into Mexico, the Tropical Storm Watch extends all the way north to the waters offshore from Galveston Island. Torrential tropical downpours are likely to move into Southeast Texas starting Tuesday night and continue through most of Wednesday. Significant street flooding and moderate coastal flooding are likely. A Flood Watch starts at 7 p.m. Tuesday and continues to 1 a.m. Wednesday. ABC13 Weather Alert Days continue for Tuesday and Wednesday.

June 17

All attention is focused on the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico where there is a 70 percent chance for tropical development. If this system strengthens to a Tropical Storm, it will be named Alberto. Regardless of development, an influx of deep tropical moisture from this system will impact parts of Texas and Louisiana starting Monday through Wednesday. The core of this system will likely move into Mexico by Wednesday, but the heavy rains will extend throughout coastal Texas. While rainfall totals in our area are far from set in stone, we currently expect 3-5 inches of rain in the I-10 corridor, with 5-8+ inches possible along the coast.

June 16 7 p.m. Update

A large area of showers and storms currently over the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche where conditions are favorable for tropical development. That being said, there is now a 50 percent chance for development over the next 48 hours and 70 percent chance for a tropical depression to form in the next 7 days. This is the tropical system that will send torrential tropical rains to Southeast Texas beginning Monday and lasting through Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday are ABC13 Weather Alert Days now with the potential for street and urban flooding, potentially flash flooding too. This is as that swirling area of thunderstorms could organize and become Alberto, the first named storm of the season, this week in the Gulf. Tonight NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters have release plans to fly to the Bay of Campeche this week to investigate the potential tropical system.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there is still a 30 percent chance for development off the east coast of Florida near the Bahamas. A tropical wave will bring heavy rains to Florida and potentially New Orleans later this week as it moves from east to west.

June 16

Development chances for our tropical low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are currently at 60%. Regardless of whether this becomes a named storm or not, our impacts will largely be the same. Our concern in Southeast Texas comes from deep tropical moisture streaming in Monday through Thursday, increasing the potential for flooding, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

The core of this system will likely move into Mexico by Wednesday, but the heavy rains will extend throughout coastal Texas. While rainfall totals in our area are far from set in stone, we currently expect 3-5 inches of rain in the I-10 corridor, with 5-8+ inches possible along the coast.

June 15 7 p.m. Update

The National Hurricane Center increased odds for development n the Bay of Campeche to 60% tonight. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two and could make a slow trek north towards Texas. While any kind of named development or landfall is still unclear, those kinds of impacts are not expected at this point for Southeast Texas. Regardless, potentially three days of rounds of tropical rains is expected Monday through Wednesday of next week. Street and low-lying area flooding is possible with these showers across the region. For the coastline, coastal flooding as well as high tides and strong rip currents are expected all of next week as this system spins to the south.

Additionally, there is a new area of potential development off the east coast of Florida and over the Bahamas. There’s a 20 percent chance for development there. Regardless, this tropical wave could send more heavy rains to Florida, a state that already got walloped by heavy rains last week.

June 15

The odds of development on a potential storm in the Southern Gulf of Mexico remain at 50%, but regardless of any development we can expect impacts here in Southeast Texas. Heavy rains capable of street flooding, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are possible Monday through Thursday. While the likely outcome is that the center of circulation moves west into Mexico, the surge of deeper tropical moisture could bring 3-6 inches of rain or more to parts of southeast Texas. We have Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as ABC13 Weather Watch days.

June 14 Evening Update

The National Hurricane Center holds the tropical development odds at 50% for the tropical low expected to spin up over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding still look likely along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, uncertainty remains on the exact impacts for Texas. Our most likely scenario remains that the low slides west into Mexico, keeping the significant flooding rains over Mexico and South Texas. If the low forms farther north than we are expecting, then a pathway toward South Texas is possible, which would increase our rain chances and amounts. We are keeping you on “Weather Watch” for now on Monday through Wednesday when the majority of local impacts are expected to occur.

June 14

We are monitoring an area of disturbed weather for potential tropical development in the southwest Gulf of Mexico over the Bay of Campeche for early next week. The National Hurricane Center has given this area a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. While the core of the system will likely drift west into Mexico, tropical moisture from that system is expected to move into Texas after Father’s Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall and street flooding. There will also be a steady current of strong southeasterly winds that will likely lead to dangerous rip currents, high seas, and minor coastal flooding. We’ve now got you on “Weather Watch” Monday through Wednesday when we expect the majority of our local impacts from this tropical weather system.

June 13 Evening Update

The National Hurricane Center holds the tropical development odds at 40% for the tropical low expected to spin up over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. Interestingly, an AI version of one of our main tropical computer models is trending toward a track into South Texas. Watch this evening’s tropical update video for a deeper discussion on that development. While we await more certainty, we’ve put you on “Weather Watch” for now on Monday through Wednesday when the majority of local impacts are expected to occur.

June 13

Tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico has increased to 40% over the next 7 days. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. For now, prepare for the possibility of torrential tropical downpours returning to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday of next week.

June 12 Evening Update

The odds of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico have increased to 30% over the next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. For now, prepare for the possibility of torrential tropical downpours returning to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday of next week.

June 12

Monitoring two areas of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. Formation odds remain low for both. A broad area of low pressure near the Gulf coast of Florida is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This is system is expected to move off the Southeast coast later this week.

There is also an area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that needs to be watched for potential development. Regardless of development, deep tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father’s Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall and gusty winds early next week.

June 11

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to move northeast toward Florida during the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later this week. Slow development is possible over the next 7 days, but the probability remains low at 20%. Regardless of development heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida during the next few days.

We are also monitoring the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days as it is possible a tropical low may try to spin up and that tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father’s Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall.

June 10

No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins over the next week. In the next 6-12 days we’ll be watching for a tropical low to bring in deep tropical moisture into the Gulf, but as of now it’s just a potential system that we are keeping an eye on. The average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20th.

June 9

No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days. We are keeping on our eyes on the potential for some broad low pressure to develop late next week in the gulf, which will spread deeper tropical moisture into Florida, but shouldn’t impact our weather over the next week. Beyond that we’ll monitor to see if any of that deeper tropical moisture makes it here into Southeast Texas as we move into the week after Father’s Day.

June 8

There remains no immediate threat of any tropical troubles, with no development expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. In the next 8-14 days we’ll be watching for a tropical low to bring in deep tropical moisture into the Gulf, but as of now it’s just a potential system that we are keeping an eye on.

June 7

In the short term (through this weekend and into next week), there are no tropical systems with no development expected.

In the longer-term (mid-to-late June) we are keeping an eye on the southern Gulf and western Caribbean for potential development.

June 6

The tropics remain quiet for now and tropical development is not expected through the weekend.

The Climate Prediction Center has highlighted an area over the western Caribbean, or southeast Gulf of Mexico for tropical development between June 12-15. Tropical development will be possible in this area due to low wind shear and record warm waters over the Caribbean and Gulf. We’ll be watching it closely.

June 5

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet and no tropical formation is expected over the next 7 days.

June 4

No tropical development expected over the next 7 days as another dust cloud moves off the coast of Africa.

June 3

There are no tropical threats across the Gulf of Mexico, or across the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days.

In the eastern Pacific, a weak area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions do not appear favorable for significant tropical development, and the system is expected to weaken during the next day or so.

June 2

Hurricane season is starting off on a quiet note. No development is expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. With record-warm waters and low wind shear, it won’t stay quiet for long.

June 1

June 1 marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. There are no major threats across the Gulf of Mexico, or across the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days. Widespread dust moving off the coast of Africa will also limit tropical development.

2024 Outlook
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its highest-on record hurricane forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. But when it comes to life along the Texas Gulf Coast, ABC13 meteorologists explain exactly what Houston-area residents need to know to plan ahead, and protect their families.

All categories of storms are expected to exceed the typical number seen every year, National Weather Service forecasters announced Thursday in a news conference for the 2024 hurricane outlook.

NOAA scientists predict between 17 and 25 named storms, compared to an average of 14; between eight and 13 hurricanes, compared to an average of seven; and between four and seven major hurricanes, compared to an average of three.

RADAR MAPS

Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County
Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

During hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app.