A year ago, the Patriots traveled to Buffalo as two-touchdown underdogs.
A year later, not much has changed.
The Pats are again facing the largest point spread they’ve seen since 1992, stumbling into a matchup against arguably the best team in the NFL. The Bills are fresh off a win at Detroit, where they toppled the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Josh Allen appears ticketed for his first MVP trophy, while Buffalo chases down Kansas City for the top seed in the AFC.
So, do the Pats have a prayer in upstate New York? Here’s what to watch for in Week 16:
When the Patriots run
Would you believe Antonio Gibson is playing like one of the best running backs in the league?
By Pro Football Focus grades and yard after contact, that’s exactly what he’s doing.
Gibson averages 4.09 yards after contact this season, second-most in the league among backs with at least 50 carries. He forced 11 missed tackles last week at Arizona, piling up 64 yards on just nine carries. Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson, who enjoyed a bounce-back game against the Cardinals, will likely be tasked with hammering away at a softer Bills run defense to drain clock and shorten the game.
Buffalo has allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season, including more than 120 yards in four of their last six games.
When the Patriots pass
Drake Maye spoke this week about finding a balance between taking what the defense gives him and letting it fly downfield. Lately, Maye has opted too often for the check-down, which indicates the Pats could get more aggressive in Buffalo.
If so, that will require buying Maye time against edge-rushers Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who have combined for 12.5 sacks, 32 QB hits and four forced fumbles this year. That will put a lot of pressure on an offensive line that held the offense back in the first half against Arizona. If Maye has time, look for shots downfield to Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne around targets over the middle for tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.
If the Bills employ a similar approach as other opponents, the Patriots may overcome an unexpected rate of man coverage. That should lead to corners Taron Johnson and Rasul Douglas, who are their lowest-graded defensive backs when they play man-to-man.
When the Bills run
Bills running back James Cook is enjoying a Pro Bowl campaign, rushing for 828 yards and 13 touchdowns so far this season. He’s the focal point of a versatile run game fronted by a beefy offensive line built to play in the cold weather ahead Sunday.
But don’t forget about Josh Allen, who rushed for three touchdowns last weekend at Detroit. Allen is a weapon on short-yardage and near the goal line, with 11 rushing touchdowns this season.
“There are rules around tackling quarterbacks, but he also can run you over, run around you, and also still maintain being a passer as he gets outside the pocket,” Pats coach Jerod Mayo said. “Those are just the challenges that he puts on defenses.”
Without defensive lineman Christian Barmore, veterans Davon Godchaux and Daniel Ekuale will be forced to play extra snaps and hold up against Buffalo’s rushing attack. Linebackers Jahlani Tavai and Christian Elliss must also fit runs better than recent weeks.
When the Bills pass
No Stefon Diggs, no problem.
Allen has thrived spreading the ball around this season, with a wide receiver (Khalil Shakir), tight end (Dalton Kincaid) and running back (Cook) serving as his top three targets. That makes it unlikely Christian Gonzalez will shadow any one of them on Sunday, even Shakir who primarily operates out of the slot, leads all Bills with 71 catches and 774 receiving yards.
The key for the Patriots may be generating the type of consistent pressure that has mostly eluded them this season. Allen must be kept inside the pocket before he can extend plays, which has devastated them in recent matchups when Buffalo is 7-2 over the past four years.
“Just from watching him, the way he’s seeing the field and going through his reads, and the ability to extend plays and turn to street ball is definitely a problem,” Mayo said of Allen. “It’s going to take all of us on the field to try to slow him down first and foremost.”
Game pick
Bills 44, Patriots 20
