Best Bet
BRONCOS at RAIDERS
Time: 3:05 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Broncos by 6.
Total: 41.
Records (overall/ATS): Broncos 6-5/8-3; Raiders 2-8/4-6.
Jayden Daniels has been a solid favorite for the Rookie of the Year Award since he outplayed Joe Burrow and led the Commanders to a 38-33 upset (at the time) of the Bengals in Week 3. But don’t sleep on Broncos quarterback Bo Nix.
Under the steady hand of coach Sean Payton, Nix has been making up ground quickly. Nix, the No. 12 overall pick in the draft out of Oregon but the sixth quarterback taken, not only seems to be getting better every week, but also has risen to the challenge the last two games. He went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 10 — passing for 215 yards and two touchdowns without an interception for a 115.3 passer rating.
And it looked like Nix was going to be a winner when he drove the Broncos to the Chiefs’ 17-yard line for a 35-yard field goal attempt with one second left that should have given the Broncos a 17-16 victory.
But the Broncos had a major protection breakdown, Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal blocked the kick and the Chiefs escaped.
Bears rookie Caleb Williams felt Nix’s pain last week when he did the same thing against the Packers, only to lose when Cairo Santos’ 46-yard field goal was blocked as time expired in the Packers’ 20-19 victory.
If Williams can respond to that disappointment as well as Nix did, the Bears might be in good shape against the Vikings.
Nix was even better against the Falcons last week than he was against the Chiefs. He completed 28 of 33 passes for a season-high 307 yards and four touchdowns, with no interceptions for a 145.0 passer rating in a 38-6 rout of the NFC South-leading Falcons. His passer rating is the highest for a rookie quarterback this season.
After a slow start in the Broncos’ first four games (one touchdown, four interceptions for a 64.5 passer rating), Nix is learning quickly. In his last seven games, he has a 106.2 passer rating (14 touchdowns, two interceptions) — the best among rookie quarterbacks in that span, including Daniels (93.0) and Williams 90.1).
Daniels is still the favorite for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award (-600). But Nix has moved up to second (+400). Sunday’s game against the Raiders — who have been beaten by Tua Tagovailoa (127.8, three touchdowns, no interceptions) and Burrow (115.5, five touchdowns, one interception) the last two games, should only help his cause.
Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 13.
TOP PLAYS
BUCCANEERS at GIANTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Buccaneers by 6.
Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 4-6/6-4; Giants 2-8/2-7-1.
Outlook: Giants have lost five straight (0-5 ATS) and benched $40M QB Daniel Jones in favor of Tommy DeVito. The former Illinois QB provided a spark last year, with a 119.8 passer rating (5 TDs, 0 INTs) in wins over the Commanders, Patriots and Packers before fading. Don’t expect a similar boost this season — the Giants are in much worse shape this time.
Pick: Bucs 31, Giants 16.
PATRIOTS at DOLPHINS
Time: Noon.
Line: Dolphins by 7.
Total: 46.
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 3-8/4-6-1; Dolphins 4-6/4-6.
Outlook: Tua Tagovailoa was written off after a concussion in Week 2, but he has played well in four games since returning — a 112.2 passer rating (7 TDs, 1 INT, 77.7% completions) and has revived the Dolphins’ playoff hopes with victories over the Rams and Raiders. Pats have beaten only the struggling Bears and Jets since Week 1.
Pick: Dolphins 24, Pats 13.
49ERS at PACKERS
Time: 3:25 p.m., Fox 32.
Line: Packers by 2.
Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 5-5/4-6; Packers 7-3/4-6.
Outlook: The 49ers are in desperation mode after a home loss to the Seahawks. That usually makes them dangerous, but this is a tough spot on the road, with Nick Bosa (groin) banged up. Packers have won 5 of 6 but are 0-4 ATS in the last 4. The Lambeau crowd should help avoid a letdown after last week’s thriller over the Bears.
Pick: Pack 26, 49ers 23.
THE REST OF THE GAMES
VIKINGS at BEARS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Vikings by 3½. Total: 39½.
Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 8-2/7-3; Bears 4-6/5-4-1.
Outlook: A must-win game for the Bears, who have only two home games remaining. It’s a daunting task, but Caleb Williams gives them hope after an encouraging — though not prolific — performance against the Packers last week. Vikings are good but vulnerable. After starting 5-0 SU/ATS, they’re 3-2/2-3, beating the Colts, Jaguars and Titans. This is their fourth road game in five weeks.
Pick: Vikings 21, Bears 19.
COWBOYS at COMMANDERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Commanders by 10. Total: 45.
Records (overall/ATS): Cowboys 3-7/2-7-1; Commanders 7-4/7-3-1.
Outlook: The Cowboys were struggling even with Dak Prescott (3-5 SU/2-6 ATS), and predictably have been worse without him against tougher competition — losing to the Eagles 34-6 and Texans 34-10 at home. Commanders will be ready, coming off losses to the Steelers and Eagles. Jayden Daniels has an 89.6 passer rating in his last four games (84.6 without the Hail Mary vs. the Bears).
Pick: Commanders 24, Cowboys 17.
CHIEFS at PANTHERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Chiefs by 11. Total: 43.
Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 9-1/5-5; Panthers 3-7/3-7.
Outlook: The Chiefs’ hopes for the first 17-0 season in NFL history were dashed in a 30-21 loss to the Bills at Highmark Stadium that will set up the inevitable revenge victory in the postseason rematch. Chiefs are back in their usual ATS rut — failing to cover in their last four. They’re 52-15 SU/29-37-1 ATS with Patrick Mahomes since Week 9 of the 2020 season. Panthers have won two straight.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Panthers 7.
TITANS at TEXANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Texans by 8. Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Titans 2-8/1-9; Texans 7-4/5-5-1.
Outlook: Texans responded well after a tough home loss to the Lions, beating the Cowboys 34-10 at AT&T Stadium. QB C.J. Stroud bears watching — he has a 73.9 passer rating in his last five games (2 TDs, 3 INTs) after a 100.2 rating (33 TDs, 9 INTs) in his first 21 regular-season games. The Titans have yet to cover in a loss, even getting 7½, 9½ and 11½ points.
Pick: Texans 30, Titans 17.
LIONS at COLTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Lions by 7½. Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Lions 9-1/8-2; Colts 5-6/8-3.
Outlook: Lions are beating the good teams and crushing the bad ones. Now they get one right in the middle — 14 teams have more wins than Colts; 14 teams have fewer wins. Colts are 4-1 SU/ATS at home. Anthony Richardson (106.5 rating) rallied the Colts to a 28-27 win over the Jets. But in his previous 100+ games, he followed up with clunkers — 41.8 vs. the Packers and 59.2 vs. the Dolphins.
Pick: Lions 31, Colts 23.
CARDINALS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Cardinals by 1. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 6-4/7-3; Seahawks 5-5/3-6-1.
Outlook: The Seahawks are coming off a 20-17 upset of the 49ers (who were without TE George Kittle) at Levi’s Stadium but they’ve been skittish all season — winning their first three, then losing their next three; losing to the Giants, then beating the Falcons and 49ers. No wonder this line flipped from Seahawks -1 to Cardinals -1. The Cardinals have won their last four (4-0 ATS).
Pick: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 24 (OT).
EAGLES at RAMS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 49.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 8-2/6-4; Rams 5-5/4-6.
Outlook: The Eagles have won six straight (4-2 ATS) and are on 10 days rest after beating the Commanders on ‘‘Thursday Night Football’’ last week. The Rams are dangerous with WR Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy and have won four of their last five (3-2 ATS). Vic Fangio’s approach is proven — shut down Kyren Williams and put the Rams in predictable passing situations.
Pick: Eagles 23, Rams 18.
RAVENS at CHARGERS
Time: 7:15 p.m., Monday, ESPN/ABC 7.
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 51.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 7-4/5-5-1; Chargers 7-3/7-3.
Outlook: A rematch of the “Harbaugh Bowl” in Super Bowl XLVII after the 2012 regular season, when John Harbaugh’s Ravens beat Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers 34-31. John, who also won a 2011 matchup (16-6 to end a 49ers eight-game winning streak), has the edge again, but not by much vs. a Chargers team that has won four straight (4-0 ATS).
Pick: Ravens 27, Chargers 23.
